Global Economy Briefing: December 1, 2025

A PMI-heavy Monday opened December with the same two-speed pattern: services-adjacent demand held up while goods improved unevenly across regions.

Europe’s factory gauges softened, the UK’s credit impulse cooled, and South Africa’s manufacturing slumped.

Asia stayed the bright spot—India’s momentum eased but remained strong, Hong Kong’s retail quickened, and Norway (outside the euro area) printed a sharp PMI rebound.

With few U.S. datapoints on the day, attention was on Powell’s evening remarks rather than fresh numbers.

Europe and UK

Eurozone manufacturing slipped back below 50 (49.6) as Germany eased to 48.2 and France stayed in contraction at 47.8; Italy edged into expansion at 50.6 and Spain held at 51.5.

The signal: the bloc’s factory recovery is fragile and uneven. In the UK, manufacturing was steady at 50.2, but the credit channel softened—consumer credit slowed, net lending to individuals fell, M4 contracted month-on-month, and mortgage approvals were broadly flat near 65k.

Switzerland’s retail sales rose 2.7 percent year-on-year, hinting at resilient consumption even as its industry remains subdued.

Read-through: Europe’s goods cycle lacks conviction; the BoE and ECB keep “hold, then gradual” optionality while watching core-price stickiness from services and wages.

Asia-Pacific

India cooled from elevated levels—manufacturing PMI to 56.6 with October industrial production up just 0.4 percent year-on-year—but the expansion remains broad, supported by earlier strength in manufacturing output month-on-month and healthy bank-credit growth into late November.

Hong Kong’s retail sales accelerated to 6.9 percent, consistent with steady services demand. Australia’s commodity-price index fell year-on-year, a mild headwind for terms of trade.

Japan’s monetary base figures and a 10-year JGB auction (due later) kept policy normalization questions in view, but no new shocks emerged.

Signal: Asia’s domestic demand pockets continue to offset softer global goods trade.

Americas

Latin America offered little new guidance on the day. Brazil’s scheduled releases (Focus survey and PMI later) left the recent picture intact: benign disinflation with mixed activity.

Mexico’s manufacturing PMI was due later; the recent pattern has been sub-50 but near the cusp.

In Canada and the U.S., the calendar was light ahead of fuller prints later in the week, with markets watching whether U.S. ISM components (orders, prices) confirm November’s goods softness and whether Powell leans “patient” in remarks.

Africa and Nordics

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 42.0, pointing to contraction and power/logistics drags resurfacing.

Norway’s manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.0 from 48.2, an upside surprise that suggests better throughput in energy-adjacent industry and inventories.

What it means

The early-December setup still favors a soft-landing base case, but Europe’s factory wobble and South Africa’s slump warn against extrapolating a clean goods rebound.

Asia remains the ballast: India and Hong Kong keep regional demand constructive even as Australia’s price pulse cools.

For positioning, favor quality duration as disinflation grinds on and lean into service-heavy exposure in the U.S. and Asia.

In Europe, choose cyclicals only where PMIs clear 50 with follow-through (Italy, Spain), and stay cautious on deep-goods and energy- or power-constrained stories until order books and credit re-accelerate.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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