Global Economy Briefing: November 27, 2025

A quiet U.S. Thanksgiving session shifted the spotlight to Europe and Asia, where signals split between improving sentiment and softening industry.

In Europe, credit was no longer tightening and survey gauges brightened at the margin, but factories stayed cautious.

In Asia, Japan’s inflation held near target as retail strengthened, while Korea’s production slumped even as shoppers spent more.

Mexico posted a trade surplus, Canada cut its external gap, and Brazil’s prices nudged higher but remained contained.

North America (ex-U.S.)

Canada’s Q3 current-account deficit narrowed to −C$9.7B from −C$21.6B and weekly earnings growth accelerated to 3.1% y/y, a combination that tempers external vulnerability while keeping a modest floor under wages.

With the U.S. closed, spillovers to Canadian rates were limited; the BoC retains flexibility but has little incentive to move quickly.

Europe and UK

German household mood improved for December (GfK −23.2 from −24.1), and the euro area’s loan growth stabilized: private-sector lending rose 2.8% y/y and loans to non-financial firms 2.9% y/y, with M3 steady at 2.8% y/y.

Italy’s picture was mixed—business confidence rose (89.6) and September industrial sales bounced (2.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y), but consumer confidence slipped to 95.0.

The European Commission’s November surveys showed services sentiment firming and headline confidence at 97.0, yet industrial sentiment remained negative (−9.3) and selling-price expectations ticked higher.

Italian auctions cleared at marginally lower yields (10-year 3.44%, 5-year 2.74%), signaling contained funding stress.

Read-through: the credit channel is no longer worsening and services are doing the heavy lifting, but manufacturers still face weak orders; the ECB gains space to hold rates while monitoring sticky price intentions.

Latin America

Mexico swung to a trade surplus in October (about $0.6–1.4 billion depending on series), easing financing needs and supporting the peso’s fundamentals.

In Brazil, IGP-M inflation rose 0.27% m/m after a prior drop, consistent with headline disinflation cooling but not reversing.

CAGED employment slowed (85k net jobs versus 213k prior), pointing to gentler labor momentum into year-end.

Policy lens: Banxico can sustain a cautious easing bias if core disinflation persists; Brazil’s central bank can stay patient as growth cools and inflation drifts around mid-4s.

Africa

South Africa’s producer inflation firmed to 2.9% y/y with a small monthly dip (−0.1% m/m). The mix points to benign pipeline pressures overall, but not enough softness to force rapid policy easing, especially with growth uneven.

Asia-Pacific

Japan’s story looked balanced: nationwide CPI held 1.6% y/y while Tokyo core was 2.8% y/y; unemployment stayed at 2.6% and the jobs-to-applicants ratio eased to 1.18.

Retail strengthened (large-scale sales up, total retail 1.7% y/y), and October industrial production rose 1.4% m/m—though official forecasts point to pullbacks in November–December, underscoring a choppy goods cycle.

Korea printed a sharp production decline (−8.1% y/y; −4.0% m/m) even as retail sales jumped 3.5% m/m and services slipped, a classic two-speed signal that argues for a steady BoK.

Australia’s credit momentum inched higher (private credit 0.7% m/m), consistent with resilient services and housing demand. Singapore’s bank lending rose to S$866.1B.

Net take: domestic demand pockets are cushioning Asia against manufacturing softness; inflation is close enough to targets to keep policy steady in most places.

What it means

The day reinforced a “services steady, goods fragile” equilibrium. In Europe, credit flows and services sentiment say recession risk is receding, but factories still lack conviction and price-setting expectations bear watching.

In Asia, Japan’s near-target inflation and firmer retail are supportive, while Korea’s output slump warns against extrapolating a clean upswing in manufacturing. Latin America’s external balances improved at the margin, lowering EM risk premia.

For portfolios: favor quality duration amid contained inflation signals; lean into service-heavy and domestic-demand exposures in Europe and Asia.

Stay selective in deep cyclicals tied to global goods until forward order books turn; and in EM, prefer balance-sheet-clean stories benefiting from improving trade positions.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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