Global Economy Briefing: December 3, 2025

A services-led day kept the soft-landing narrative intact. Europe’s PMIs stayed in expansion, Switzerland’s inflation hit 0.0% y/y, and producer prices in the euro area were still negative y/y.

In the U.S., services held up while labor and housing showed mixed signals, and fuel inventories rose.

Asia remained the ballast with strong India services and firmer Korean growth. Latin America improved at the margin on Brazilian services, but Mexico’s capex remained weak.

United States

ISM services printed 52.6 with activity 54.5 and new orders 52.9; prices eased to 65.4 from 70.0, and employment stayed below 50 at 48.9. ADP fell 32k, mortgage rates dipped to 6.32%, and applications slipped, though the purchase index rose.

Crude inventories rose 0.6M barrels, gasoline +4.5M, and distillates +2.1M as refinery runs increased, pointing to looser near-term balances.

Translation: demand is steady, inflation pressure is drifting lower, and the Fed can hold.

Canada

Labor productivity rebounded 0.9% q/q, but services PMI slid to 44.3. Reserve assets eased to C$127.8B. Read: growth is soft in services and the BoC has space to wait.

Europe and UK

Euro services stayed in expansion (eurozone 53.6; composite 52.8). Germany and France improved (DE services 53.1; FR services 51.4), Italy outperformed (services 55.0), Spain cooled slightly (55.6).

Euro PPI was −0.5% y/y; Switzerland’s CPI was 0.0% y/y; UK services printed 51.3 and the 5-year gilt auction yield fell to 3.855%.

Takeaway: disinflation with service-led growth gives the ECB and BoE cover to stay on hold.

Latin America

Brazil’s services rose back above 50 (50.1) and the composite reached 49.6, but FX flows showed a $4.1B outflow.

Mexico’s fixed investment fell again (−0.3% m/m; −6.7% y/y) but the pace of decline improved.

Signal: Brazil’s activity is stabilizing while external funding leaves; Mexico’s capex slump remains the main drag.

Africa

South Africa’s PMI ticked up to 49.0, still just below 50. The message is “stall, not slump.”

Asia-Pacific

India’s services PMI jumped to 59.8 and the composite stayed near 60. Japan’s services held at 53.2, with a stronger bid for equities and a softer bid for JGBs (30-year at 3.427%). Korea earlier showed faster Q3 growth; Australia’s trade surplus widened on stronger exports.

Net: Asia’s domestic demand continues to offset a soft global goods pulse.

What it means

The day supports “hold and watch.” Services keep growth positive; goods and capex are patchy; inflation pressures are easing, not collapsing.

Positioning tilt: keep quality duration; favor service-heavy exposures in the U.S. and Asia; be selective in Europe where PMIs are firmly above 50 (Italy, France’s services); stay cautious on Brazil until outflows abate and on Mexico until investment turns.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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