Key Facts
—Output. Escondida produced 252,600 tonnes of copper in July–September, down 19% from the previous quarter and 23% from a year earlier.
—Guidance. BHP kept its target for Escondida at 1.0–1.1 million tonnes in the fiscal year to June 2027, and its group copper target at 1.65–1.80 million tonnes.
—Causes. A planned lower ore grade of 0.81%, scheduled maintenance, bad weather in July and August, and a fatal accident on 23 September that paused mining.
—Labour. Escondida’s supervisors’ union and BHP agreed a 36-month contract on 14 October, which averted a strike.
—Prices. BHP says copper prices are about 50% higher than a year ago.
—Prediction markets. Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, gives 85% odds that copper settles above US$6.51 a pound on 23 October (19 October, 10:33 p.m. ET).
—Power Index Chile ranks 3rd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 63.6 points (October 2026 edition).
Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, produced 252,600 tonnes of copper in the July–September quarter, down 19% from the previous quarter and 23% from a year earlier, BHP said on Monday, 19 October 2026. BHP, whose shares also trade in New York, kept its target of 1.0–1.1 million tonnes for the fiscal year that runs to June 2027.
Copper feeds power grids, construction and electric vehicles, so a drop at one of the biggest single mines matters to US buyers and investors. BHP’s decision to hold its annual target suggests it sees the fall as temporary.
Why Output Fell
BHP said the drop reflects a planned lower ore grade of 0.81%, against 0.94% a year earlier, and maintenance scheduled for the quarter. Bad weather in July and August also limited logistics and the use of the mine’s truck fleet.
A worker died in an accident during maintenance on 23 September 2026, and BHP paused all mining activity temporarily. BHP said an investigation is under way and that it is working closely with local authorities.
BHP chief executive Brandon Craig said the fall in the company’s copper output reflects planned declines in ore grades and scheduled maintenance, together with weather and safety stoppages. BHP’s group copper output was 400,700 tonnes, down 19% from a year earlier.
Targets and Prices
BHP kept its Escondida target for the fiscal year to June 2027 at 1.0–1.1 million tonnes and its group copper target at 1.65–1.80 million tonnes. Craig said copper prices were about 50% higher than a year ago, which helped BHP’s results.
BHP is also planning a New Concentrator at Escondida to replace the Los Colorados plant. The project is estimated at US$5.4–6.3 billion and would produce 230,000–270,000 tonnes of copper a year, with output expected from 2031–32.
Live Market IntelligenceChile — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Chile — Live Market Board
+0.02%
205,079.25
-0.17%
68,969.69
+0.06%
10,972.40
+0.02%
3,017,221
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2,521.34
-1.75%
59,664.64
+0.40%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPSA | 10,972.40 | +0.02% | — | 10,970.29 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| COPPER | 6.61 | +0.03% | +46.70% | 6.61 | 6.71 | 6.61 | 39,543 |
| SQM-B | 65,305 | -0.84% | +49.03% | 65,860 | 66,949 | 64,978 | 76,539 |
| COPEC | 5,964 | -1.09% | -11.70% | 6,030 | 6,100 | 5,960 | 634,331 |
| BSANTANDER | 78.37 | -2.28% | +35.94% | 80.20 | 81.69 | 78.34 | 36,288,711 |
| FALABELLA | 6,334 | -1.48% | +23.28% | 6,429 | 6,450 | 6,300 | 26,085,814 |
| ENELAM | 87.09 | +0.10% | -10.13% | 87.00 | 87.40 | 86.50 | 13,106,417 |
| CENCOSUD | 1,946 | -2.19% | -35.30% | 1,990 | 2,010 | 1,945 | 966,528 |
| CMPC | 1,020 | -1.96% | -29.10% | 1,040 | 1,050 | 1,015 | 3,526,677 |
| BANCO CHILE | 184.96 | -1.01% | +32.87% | 186.85 | 189.99 | 184.33 | 18,101,240 |
| LATAM AIR | 24.08 | -1.11% | +16.61% | 24.35 | 24.59 | 23.88 | 573,612,753 |
| SOUTHERN COPPER | 193.97 | -0.26% | +104.01% | 194.48 | 199.36 | 192.59 | 367,102 |
Labour Peace Holds for Now
Escondida’s supervisors’ union, Union No. 2 with 1,020 members, voted 94.8% to back a strike after it rejected BHP’s final offer. BHP and the union reached a 36-month agreement on 14 October, and Emol reported that 64% of members backed the deal.
The labour dispute did not cause the quarterly drop, because BHP blamed grades, maintenance, weather and the accident. Our earlier report covers the strike threat at Escondida.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), lists a contract on the copper price at 5:00 p.m. ET on 23 October 2026, with 64,533 contracts traded. On 19 October at 10:33 p.m. ET, bettors put the odds of a price above US$6.45 a pound at 95%, above US$6.51 at 85% and above US$6.54 at 79%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Chile’s Wider Copper Output
Chile’s copper commission Cochilco says Escondida produced 797,500 tonnes from January to August 2026, down 11.4% from a year earlier. Chile as a whole produced 3.25 million tonnes in the period, down 7.7%.
For the full picture, see our guide to copper in Latin America and our Chile coverage. Our BHP Company Intelligence profile tracks the company’s filings.
What It Means for You
Investors in BHP, and companies that use copper such as cable and electronics makers, should watch whether Escondida’s output recovers in the next quarterly update. If BHP keeps its target, the supply loss looks like a pause rather than a lasting cut.
With copper about 50% above last year’s price, lower volumes can still support BHP’s results. Price and output therefore need to be read together.
What Is Not Known
BHP has not said how much of the quarterly drop is temporary and how much reflects falling ore grades. It has not published the output lost because of the 23 September accident.
We have not seen the findings of the investigation into the accident. The full terms of the new labour contract have not been published in the reports we reviewed.
Sources
La Tercera · BHP · Emol · Redimin · CNN Chile (Cochilco data) · Kalshi
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
In depth
Copper in Latin America
- Copper in Latin America 2026: Mines, Prices and Politics
- What Is Codelco? Chile’s State Copper Giant, Its Debt and the El Teniente Crisis
- Peru Copper Mining Explained: Output, Big Mines, Exports and Risks in 2026
- Peru Natural Resources Explained 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Escondida’s copper output fall?
BHP cited a planned lower ore grade of 0.81%, scheduled maintenance, bad weather in July and August, and a fatal accident on 23 September that paused mining. The labour dispute did not cause the decline.
Did BHP change its production target?
No, BHP kept its fiscal-2027 target for Escondida at 1.0–1.1 million tonnes. Its group copper target also stayed at 1.65–1.80 million tonnes.
What is the status of the strike threat at Escondida?
BHP and Union No. 2, which has 1,020 members, agreed a 36-month contract on 14 October. The deal averted the strike.
How much copper does Chile produce?
Chile produced 3.25 million tonnes of copper from January to August 2026, down 7.7% from a year earlier, according to Cochilco. Escondida alone produced 797,500 tonnes in that period.