Colombia Poll Puts Leftist Cepeda Ahead As Conservatives Split The Field

Key Points

• Left-wing senator Iván Cepeda leads an early poll with 30%, ahead of right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella on 22%.
• Second-round tests still favor the left, while conservative-leaning forces remain split across several names.
• Turnout intentions and security fears, plus Venezuela spillovers, could decide a volatile race.

Left-wing senator Iván Cepeda has taken an early lead in Colombia’s presidential race, according to a GAD3 poll carried by Noticias RCN and partner outlets.

The survey says Cepeda would take 30% if the election were held now. Right-wing lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella follows with 22%. Right-of-center senator Paloma Valencia is third on 3%.

Centrist Juan Manuel Galán sits on 2%. Conservative-leaning journalist Vicky Dávila has 2%. Center-right former defense minister Juan Carlos Pinzón is on 2%. Centrist former governor Sergio Fajardo registers 1%.

The poll was conducted by phone from January 13–15, 2026, with 1,207 adults, and reported a margin of error near three points. Colombia’s first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026.

Before that, legislative elections and inter-party consultations on March 8 can redraw coalitions and squeeze weaker bids.

Colombia Election Race Tightens Fast

Cepeda’s advantage reflects organization on the left. He won the Pacto Histórico’s internal contest on October 26, 2025, taking 65.51% and about 1.074 million votes, according to the report.

His long tenure in Congress and his legal clashes with former president Álvaro Uribe have kept him at the center of the country’s ideological battles, and he is now presented as the clearest continuity option for Petro’s governing bloc.

De la Espriella’s rise is built less on party machinery than on mobilization and message discipline. He delivered roughly 4.6 million signatures in early December, a striking show of reach for a newcomer.

His Defensores de la Patria movement has grown through social platforms and a sharp critique of Petro’s security approach and economic direction, themes that resonate with voters tired of rising crime and uncertainty.

Second-round simulations underline the stakes. The poll tested matchups and placed Cepeda ahead against De la Espriella, Fajardo, Valencia, and Pinzón, though margins vary.

Another number may matter just as much: turnout intent. The survey found 66% said they would “surely” vote, while 18% said they would “probably” vote.

The questionnaire also probed geopolitics, asking about reactions to Nicolás Maduro’s reported capture in early January.

It found 66% approved a U.S. intervention, 16% rejected it, and 18% declined to answer. In a country already split, outside shocks can quickly become domestic campaign ammunition.

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