Colombia’s Peso Firms as Bond Dollars Meet a Quieter Global Tape

Key Points

• The peso held near recent highs as Colombia’s $5.0 billion bond sale filtered into FX expectations.
• Local equities pushed deeper into record territory, led by heavy turnover in the iCOLCAP ETF and big liquid names.
• A softer dollar index and a U.S. holiday-thinned session shaped price action, but charts look stretched.

Colombia’s peso began Monday steady, still trading like a beneficiary of calm global conditions and local financing momentum. On ICE, USD/COP was around 3,692.8 in early hours, essentially flat on the session.

Colombia’s official TRM reference for Monday was 3,700.05 per dollar, keeping the market close to the psychological 3,700 line. The clearest near-term driver remains Colombia’s nearly $5.0 billion global bond sale.

The mechanism is simple. Dollar proceeds eventually need to be converted into pesos to fund local spending. That expectation has supported the currency through the past week’s downtrend in USD/COP.

Jorge Llano, an executive at AMV, framed the move as a mix of calmer global conditions and U.S. policy politics. He also pointed to the bond deal’s size and expected FX conversion as a direct tailwind for the peso.

Friday’s official TRM was 3,687.32. Intraday pricing ranged roughly between 3,685 and 3,715, with about $1.60 billion traded across 1,969 transactions. The dollar index also leaned slightly lower into Monday, near 99.09, down about 0.06%.

Monday’s session has an extra wrinkle. U.S. cash equity and bond markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Thinner liquidity can exaggerate moves, even when the headline price looks calm.

The charts tell a two-speed story. On 4-hour frames, momentum is improving and USD/COP looks like it is basing. On daily frames, indicators still look heavy, with support clustered near 3,692 and 3,678–3,675, and resistance around 3,702 and 3,719–3,724.

Colombian stocks moved the other way. The MSCI COLCAP ended Friday at 2,345.40, up 2.53%. Cash turnover was notable last week, with COP 314.556 billion traded on Jan. 15, about 10% higher than the day before.

The iCOLCAP ETF led activity with COP 94.301 billion, followed by Ecopetrol at COP 59.557 billion and Grupo Cibest preferred at COP 58.945 billion. Offshore, the small ICOL ETF traded around $9.02.

Top Winners and Losers

Winners: Colombian peso, MSCI COLCAP, iCOLCAP ETF activity, Ecopetrol, Grupo Cibest preferred.

Losers: The U.S. dollar versus COP, USD/COP bulls, dollar-heavy local hedges, exporters facing a stronger peso, late momentum buyers chasing overbought equity signals.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombian markets and Latin American financial news.

For context on regional markets, see Brazil’s Ibovespa for the same session.

Also tracking regional peers: Chile’s IPSA closed the same session.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Colombia Poll Puts Leftist Cepeda Ahead As Conservatives Spl

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