Colombia Stocks Hold as Ecopetrol Dips 1% | Colombia Market Report, Oct 15
Key Facts
- Colombia’s COLCAP index edged down to about 2,580 on Thursday 15 October, a fall of about 0.06%.
- Ecopetrol’s New York shares fell 1.12% to US$17.70, while Grupo Cibest, the former Bancolombia group, rose 0.75% to US$97.65.
- The index is up about 2.7% in October and about 35.9% in a year, and remains below its September record.
- Colombia’s central bank is priced for no change, with traders giving 68.0% to that outcome and 24.0% to a 25-basis-point increase.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 68.0% that Colombia’s central bank leaves its rate unchanged in October (US$36,990 traded, read at 8:24 pm ET on 15 October). Bets, not polls.
Today’s Focus
Colombia’s main stock index, the MSCI COLCAP, edged down to about 2,580 points on Thursday 15 October. Trading Economics put the close at 2,580.50, down 0.06%.
We report the level as about 2,580. Ecopetrol, the state-controlled oil company, lost 1.12% in New York.
US investors follow Colombia mainly through Ecopetrol’s ADR and Grupo Cibest’s ADR. They moved in opposite directions on Thursday.
What matters today. A flat index hides a split between oil and banks, which matters for US holders of Colombian ADRs when oil prices and US yields move together.
01 The session in one read
The COLCAP closed at about 2,580, a fraction below Wednesday’s 2,582. It remains below the all-time high set in September.
Ecopetrol’s New York shares fell 1.12% even though US oil funds rose, which is a gap we cannot explain from the data. Grupo Cibest (formerly Bancolombia), the banking group, rose 0.75%.
The index barely moved while its largest stock fell and the largest bank group rose. A flat close can hide large offsetting moves.
Without local share prices for the day, we cannot say how much of the index move came from Ecopetrol.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI COLCAP | about 2,580 | -0.06% |
| Ecopetrol ADR (US$) | 17.70 | -1.12% |
| Grupo Cibest ADR (US$) | 97.65 | +0.75% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,744.06 | +0.33% |
| USO oil fund (US$) | 157.31 | +2.44% |
We do not publish a peso move for the day. RT shows USD/COP at 3,195 after 3,189, while Infobae reported a close of 3,167, down 0.67%, so the sources disagree on direction. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceColombia — Live Market Board
Colombia — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
COLCAP
2,580.50
-0.07%
—
9.04
9.05
9.02
4,133
USD/COP
3,140
+0.03%
-22.04%
3,139
3,141
3,105
—
BRENT
88.88
-0.03%
+34.42%
88.91
90.07
88.12
29,713
WTI
83.11
-0.11%
+31.57%
83.20
84.35
82.40
166,848
ECOPETROL
16.92
-0.53%
+98.01%
17.01
17.05
16.79
737,591
BANCOLOMBIA
95.87
-2.18%
+96.15%
98.01
100.36
95.73
188,740
GRUPO AVAL
5.40
+2.66%
+76.89%
5.26
5.49
5.32
146,447
TECNOGLASS
42.30
-1.10%
-48.04%
42.77
42.73
42.05
60,908
CREDICORP
375.17
-0.49%
+49.60%
377.00
384.43
372.27
88,375
BUENAVENTURA
34.45
-1.02%
+88.07%
34.80
35.62
34.33
275,831
SOUTHERN COPPER
193.97
-0.26%
+104.01%
194.48
199.36
192.59
367,102
Live Company IntelligenceEcopetrol SA ADR — the full investor dossier
Wall Street view
Valuation & profitability
Price & risk
$8.1652-wk high
$18.38
Revenue trend · 6y
Ownership
Dividend
03 Why it moved: oil and yields pull in different directions
Oil funds rose on Thursday, but Ecopetrol’s ADR fell, and Colombian banks gained as US Treasury prices rose. The TLT bond fund gained 1.37%, which means yields fell.
Lower US yields generally ease financing costs for emerging markets. We found no Colombia-specific news that explains Ecopetrol’s fall, and we could not confirm the result of Colombia’s September consumer confidence survey (forecast 11, previous 15.5), due at 15:00 UTC.
04 The day’s movers
| Stock (New York shares) | Note | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Grupo Cibest | Banking group, formerly Bancolombia | +0.75% |
| Ecopetrol | State-controlled oil company | -1.12% |
Local closes for other COLCAP members were not confirmed for the session, so the table shows only the two New York-listed shares we could measure.
05 The regional scoreboard
Colombia was close to flat while the region split. Mexico’s IPC rose 1.31%, Argentina’s Merval 0.69%, Chile’s IPSA 0.05% and Brazil’s Ibovespa fell 1.06%.
The ILF fund fell 0.83%.
06 The outlook
The central bank’s decision is the main domestic risk, with traders expecting no change. A 24.0% price for an increase shows the market sees a real chance of tightening.
The index needs to break above its September record to resume its climb. Oil and US yields are the main outside drivers.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, priced Colombia’s central bank decision in October at 68.0% for no change, 24.0% for a 25-basis-point increase and 6.9% for an increase of 50 basis points or more, with US$36,990 traded (read at 8:24 pm ET on 15 October). These prices are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly on new data.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Activity data: Colombia’s August industrial production (forecast −2.1%) and retail sales (forecast +8.5%) are due on Friday 16 October at 15:00 UTC.
- Central bank: The October decision will test the market’s 68.0% bet on no change.
- Oil: Ecopetrol’s ADR will show whether Thursday’s gap to oil funds closes.
- US data: US industrial production for September is due at 13:15 UTC on Friday.
Background: Colombian Peso Slips as Ecopetrol Gains.
Background: Chile Stocks Edge Up 0.05% as Peso Firms.
More: Colombia news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Colombian stocks close on 15 October?
The COLCAP edged down to about 2,580, a fall of about 0.06%, according to Trading Economics.
How did Ecopetrol trade?
Ecopetrol’s New York shares fell 1.12% to US$17.70, according to RT.
Why does the wrap not give a peso move?
Data sources disagree on the direction of the peso on 15 October, so we do not state a move.
What do prediction markets expect from the central bank?
Polymarket priced 68.0% for no change in October, 24.0% for a 25-basis-point increase and 6.9% for a larger increase, as of 8:24 pm ET on 15 October. These are bets, not forecasts.
Market data: RT/RT; COLCAP close: Trading Economics; prediction markets: Polymarket.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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