Colombia Stocks Slip 0.55% as Peso Firms | Colombia Market Report, Oct 16
Key Facts
- Colombia’s COLCAP fell 0.55% to 2,566.28 on Friday 16 October, while the S&P 500 fell 1.09% and the Nasdaq 2.14%.
- The peso strengthened 0.6% to about 3,176 per US dollar, from about 3,195 on Thursday, according to RT.
- Manufacturing output fell 3.7% in August from a year earlier, worse than the 2.1% fall forecast, while retail sales rose 7.3% against a forecast of 8.5%, according to DANE.
- Ecopetrol’s New York shares rose 1.13% to US$17.90, as Brent crude settled at US$109.86 a barrel.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 67.0% to no change in the Bank of the Republic’s October decision and 23.0% to a 25-basis-point rise (US$37,535 traded, read at 8:22 pm ET on 16 October). Bets, not forecasts.
Today’s Focus
Colombia’s main stock index, the COLCAP, fell 0.55% to 2,566.28 points on Friday 16 October. The Colombian peso strengthened 0.6% to about 3,176 per US dollar, according to RT.
New data from DANE, the national statistics agency, showed a split economy. Manufacturing output fell 3.7% in August from a year earlier, while retail sales rose 7.3%, driven by car and motorcycle purchases.
US investors mostly own Colombia through New York-listed shares. Ecopetrol, the state-controlled oil company, rose 1.13% to US$17.90, while Bancolombia gained 0.27% to US$97.91.
What matters today. Strong consumer spending and weak factories give the central bank a mixed picture, and the peso’s strength helps imported goods but squeezes exporters.
01 The session in one read
The COLCAP closed at 2,566.28, down 14.22 points or 0.55%, according to Trading Economics. It followed a flat Thursday, when the index closed near 2,580.
The peso closed at about 3,176 per dollar, from about 3,195 on Thursday, according to RT. The official reference rate, the TRM, was 3,170.46 pesos per dollar.
A stronger peso lowers the cost of imports but cuts the peso value of dollar earnings. Oil prices may have helped, since Colombia exports crude.
Weak industry and strong retail sales pulled in opposite directions. The index fell modestly, which fits that mixed picture.
The sources we checked did not name a single cause for the fall. We do not offer one.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| COLCAP | 2,566.28 | -0.55% |
| Pesos per US dollar | 3,176 | -0.61% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,659.44 | -1.09% |
| Nasdaq Composite (US) | 26,140.03 | -2.14% |
| Ecopetrol ADR (US$) | 17.90 | +1.13% |
The change is negative because it takes fewer pesos to buy a dollar, which means the peso is stronger. The Dow Jones fell 0.34%.
Ecopetrol’s New York shares rose even though the COLCAP fell. Oil prices helped the oil company while other sectors weighed on the index.
Live Market IntelligenceColombia — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Colombia — Live Market Board
-0.55%
205,430.33
+0.54%
68,420.16
+1.12%
10,969.16
-0.02%
2,848,945
-0.35%
2,566.28
-0.55%
60,210.69
-0.91%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLCAP | 2,566.28 | -0.55% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| ECOPETROL | 16.92 | -0.53% | +98.01% | 17.01 | 17.05 | 16.79 | 737,591 |
| BANCOLOMBIA | 95.87 | -2.18% | +96.15% | 98.01 | 100.36 | 95.73 | 188,740 |
| GRUPO AVAL | 5.40 | +2.66% | +76.89% | 5.26 | 5.49 | 5.32 | 146,447 |
| TECNOGLASS | 42.30 | -1.10% | -48.04% | 42.77 | 42.73 | 42.05 | 60,908 |
| CREDICORP | 375.17 | -0.49% | +49.60% | 377.00 | 384.43 | 372.27 | 88,375 |
| BUENAVENTURA | 34.45 | -1.02% | +88.07% | 34.80 | 35.62 | 34.33 | 275,831 |
| SOUTHERN COPPER | 193.97 | -0.26% | +104.01% | 194.48 | 199.36 | 192.59 | 367,102 |
03 Why it moved: the economic data
DANE reported that industrial production, measured in manufacturing, fell 3.7% in August from a year earlier, according to Portafolio. The RT economic calendar had forecast a 2.1% fall after a 2.3% fall in July.
Retail sales rose 7.3%, driven by sales of cars and motorcycles, according to La República. The calendar forecast was 8.5%, after a 5.3% rise in July, so the gain was strong but below expectations.
Global risk appetite was weak, with the Nasdaq down 2.14% on worries about artificial intelligence spending. That is the likeliest backdrop for the small fall in the COLCAP, though no source confirmed it.
04 The day’s movers
| Stock | Note | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ecopetrol ADR (US$17.90) | State-controlled oil company, New York shares | +1.13% |
| Bancolombia ADR (US$97.91) | Largest bank, New York shares | +0.27% |
The New York shares of Ecopetrol and Bancolombia both rose while the local index fell. Local prices in pesos can differ because they also move with the exchange rate.
We show only the New York closes because they are confirmed in US dollars. Local movers for the day were not available from the sources we checked.
05 The regional scoreboard
Colombia was the weakest of the five main Latin American markets on Friday. Mexico’s IPC rose 1.87%, Brazil’s Ibovespa 0.54%, Chile’s IPSA was flat at −0.01%, and Argentina’s Merval fell 0.35%.
Colombia’s stronger peso stands out against a weaker peso in Mexico and Chile. Higher oil prices may have helped the currency, since Colombia exports crude.
06 The outlook
The central bank is the next test, and prediction markets expect no change in October. A rise would support the peso further but slow the economy.
The peso strengthened 0.6% on the day. If oil reverses, that strength could fade quickly.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, priced no change in the Bank of the Republic’s October interest-rate decision at 67.0%, a 25-basis-point rise at 23.0% and a rise of 50 basis points or more at 6.0%, with US$37,535 traded (read at 8:22 pm ET on 16 October). These prices are bets, not forecasts.
They can move quickly on new inflation data. Comments from officials can also shift them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- The central bank: The October interest-rate decision is the main domestic event; markets price a hold.
- The peso: Watch whether the dollar stays near 3,170 pesos or returns above 3,200.
- Oil: Brent near US$110 supports Ecopetrol and the peso.
- Industry and consumers: Manufacturing fell 3.7% while retail sales rose 7.3%; the next data show whether factories recover.
Background: Colombia Stocks Hold as Ecopetrol Dips 1%.
More: Colombia news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Colombian stocks end on 16 October?
The COLCAP fell 0.55% to 2,566.28, according to Trading Economics. It was the weakest of the five main Latin American markets.
What happened to the Colombian peso?
The peso strengthened 0.6% to about 3,176 per dollar, according to RT. The official reference rate, the TRM, was 3,170.46.
What did the new economic data show?
Manufacturing output fell 3.7% in August from a year earlier, while retail sales rose 7.3%, according to DANE. Car and motorcycle sales drove the retail gain.
What do prediction markets expect from the central bank?
Polymarket priced no change in October at 67.0% and a 25-basis-point rise at 23.0% as of 8:22 pm ET on 16 October. These are bets, not forecasts.
Market data: RT; index: Trading Economics; peso: RT, Superfinanciera; data: DANE via Portafolio, La República, El Tiempo; oil: Energy Now; prediction markets: Polymarket.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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