COLCAP Gains 2.7% as Peso Strengthens | Colombia Market Report, Oct 5
Key Facts
- The COLCAP rose 2.69% on Monday, as Colombian assets joined the regional rally (Investing.com).
- The peso gained about 1.8%, to about 3,196 per US dollar, according to Portafolio, with a daily range of 3,190 to 3,250. The official rate (TRM) for Monday was 3,273.49.
- Portafolio linked the dollar’s fall to the central bank’s 25 basis point rate rise to 12.25% and to a fiscal “rescue law” announced by the finance minister.
- In New York, Ecopetrol rose 3.92% and Bancolombia 4.52%. The Colombian oil company’s ADR closed at US$17.25 (RT).
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 43% to no change at the central bank’s October meeting and 37% to a 25 basis point rise (US$33,220 traded). Bets, not forecasts. Stand: 8:38 pm ET, 5 October.
Today’s Focus
Colombian stocks and the peso rallied on Monday. The COLCAP, the main index of the Colombian stock exchange, rose 2.69%. The peso strengthened to about 3,196 per US dollar, up about 1.8%.
The move came as Brazil’s election result lifted emerging markets and as Colombia’s own rate and fiscal news reached the market.
What matters today. A stronger peso lowers the dollar cost of Colombian debt and raises the dollar value of Colombian stocks, which matters to US holders of Ecopetrol and Bancolombia ADRs.
01 The session in one read
The COLCAP closed up 2.69%, according to Investing.com’s Colombian market report.
The peso strengthened to about 3,196 per US dollar, down 58 pesos or about 1.8% on the day, with a daily range of 3,190 to 3,250 (Portafolio). The official rate (TRM) used for Monday was 3,273.49, which was set before the move.
Colombia’s ADRs in New York also rose. Ecopetrol gained 3.92% to US$17.25 and Bancolombia 4.52% to US$96.06 (RT).
The peso gain was in line with Chile’s, and Portafolio named local factors as well as the regional rally. It cited the central bank’s rate rise and a government fiscal package.
The central bank’s October meeting and Wednesday’s inflation data will test whether the peso gain holds.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| COLCAP | — | +2.69% | Investing.com |
| USD/COP | about 3,196 | −1.78% | Portafolio; RT shows 3,194 |
| Ecopetrol ADR (EC) | US$17.25 | +3.92% | New York, RT |
| Bancolombia ADR (CIB) | US$96.06 | +4.52% | New York, RT |
RT does not carry a COLCAP level, so we report the percentage change published by a Colombian market source.
A falling dollar rate means one dollar buys fewer pesos. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceColombia — Live Market Board
Colombia — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
COLCAP
2,582.65
+2.69%
—
9.04
9.05
9.02
4,133
USD/COP
3,140
+0.03%
-22.04%
3,139
3,141
3,105
—
BRENT
88.88
-0.03%
+34.42%
88.91
90.07
88.12
29,713
WTI
83.11
-0.11%
+31.57%
83.20
84.35
82.40
166,848
ECOPETROL
16.92
-0.53%
+98.01%
17.01
17.05
16.79
737,591
BANCOLOMBIA
95.87
-2.18%
+96.15%
98.01
100.36
95.73
188,740
GRUPO AVAL
5.40
+2.66%
+76.89%
5.26
5.49
5.32
146,447
TECNOGLASS
42.30
-1.10%
-48.04%
42.77
42.73
42.05
60,908
CREDICORP
375.17
-0.49%
+49.60%
377.00
384.43
372.27
88,375
BUENAVENTURA
34.45
-1.02%
+88.07%
34.80
35.62
34.33
275,831
SOUTHERN COPPER
193.97
-0.26%
+104.01%
194.48
199.36
192.59
367,102
03 Why it moved — Brazil, rates and fiscal news
Portafolio attributed the peso’s strength to two local factors. The Banco de la República raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 12.25% from 12.00%, and Finance Minister Miguel Gómez announced an economic “rescue law” with budget adjustments.
The regional backdrop mattered too. Brazil’s Ibovespa gained 7.70%, and other Latin American currencies rose.
DANE reported that August exports rose 15.1% from a year earlier to US$4.46 billion, led by fuels, mining and gold (DANE via El Tiempo; forecast in the RT calendar was 4.7).
The central bank’s monetary policy minutes were due at 22:00 UTC on Monday, after the stock market closed (RT calendar).
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ecopetrol ADR (EC) | +3.92% | — | State-controlled oil company |
| Bancolombia ADR (CIB) | +4.52% | — | Bank |
We could verify moves for the two largest US-listed Colombian names. Other local closes were not available from our data provider when we checked.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | +7.70% |
| S&P Merval | Argentina | +3.68% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | +2.69% |
| S&P IPSA | Chile | +1.91% |
| S&P/BMV IPC | Mexico | +0.69% |
Colombia ranked third of the five markets we track. The peso’s gain of about 1.8% was smaller than the Brazilian real’s 4.12% and similar to Chile’s.
06 The technical picture
The TRM for Monday was 3,273.49, and the peso closed near 3,196. The gap between the official rate and the market price is about 2.4%.
The peso’s range for the day was 3,190 to 3,250 (Portafolio).
07 What to watch
- Producer prices for September, Tuesday 6 October, 19:00 UTC: Forecast 1.5% against 0.76% before (RT calendar).
- September inflation, Wednesday 7 October, 23:00 UTC: Forecast 0.39% for the month and 6.31% for the year, against 6.24% before.
- Central bank, October meeting: Polymarket traders price no change at 43% and a 25 basis point rise at 37%.
- Brazil’s runoff, 25 October: It may keep steering Latin American currencies.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket prices the Banco de la República’s October decision as follows: no change 43.0%, a 25 basis point rise 37.0%, a rise of 50 or more basis points 17.7%, a cut 1.8% (US$33,220 traded). Readings from 8:38 pm ET on 5 October.
These prices are bets by traders, not statements by the central bank.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Background: COLCAP Slips 0.59% to 2,515, Peso Up 1.5% | Colombia Market Report, Oct 2.
Background: COLCAP Falls 0.75% to 2,530 After Rate Hike | Colombia Market Report, Oct 1.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the COLCAP?
It is the main index of the Colombian stock exchange (BVC). It tracks the most traded Colombian companies.
Why did the Colombian peso strengthen?
Portafolio pointed to the central bank’s rate rise to 12.25% and a government fiscal package. Brazil’s rally lifted regional currencies as well.
How much did the COLCAP rise?
It rose 2.69% on Monday, according to Investing.com.
Why does it matter to US investors?
Ecopetrol and Bancolombia trade in New York. A stronger peso raises the dollar value of their local earnings.
Sources: Portafolio, Investing.com, RT, Polymarket. Market data: RT; exchange figures from BVC.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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