Colombia Confidence Dips but Expectations Hit 8-Year High

Ask Colombians whether life will improve over the next year and you will get the most enthusiastic response the country has produced in nearly eight years. Ask them whether now is a good time to buy a refrigerator, and the answer is a much colder shrug. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombia affairs and Latin American financial news.

That tension sits at the heart of Fedesarrollo’s January Consumer Opinion Survey, which showed the overall Consumer Confidence Index slipping 1.7 percentage points from December to 18.2%.

The reading remains the second-highest in the past year and is 19.3 points above January 2025, when confidence stood at -1.1%. But the monthly dip exposed a gap between how Colombians see tomorrow and how they judge today.

The Consumer Expectations Index climbed 1.9 points to 23.8%, its best mark since June 2018. The Economic Conditions Index told a different story: it fell 7.2 points to 9.7%, dragged down by willingness to purchase durable goods plunging to 6.1% from 14.9% in December.

Geographically, confidence held broadly positive. Barranquilla led with 33.6%, a reversal from -8.4% a year ago, followed by Cali at 28.9% and Bogotá at 20.6%. Medellín was the sole outlier at -4.0%. Willingness to buy a home fell across all five cities, down 13.3 points from December — a sign that borrowing costs still weigh on households.

By income, middle- and low-income households reported positive confidence at 21.6% and 17.2%, while high-income respondents posted -6.0%. Vehicle purchase sentiment stayed in the red at -19.8%, though 28.1 points better than a year ago.

The broader takeaway is a consumer who has turned a psychological corner but not yet opened the wallet. Expectations are at multi-year highs and four out of five cities report positive sentiment, yet reluctance on homes, vehicles, and appliances suggests optimism has not translated into spending. For the Banco de la República, still navigating rate cuts, that gap may be the survey’s most telling number.

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