Today’s Focus
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The Big Picture: The Ibovespa slipped 0.17% to 185,929 yesterday as investors digested a mixed IPCA inflation print and a stunning collapse in Eneva shares. The dollar edged higher to R$5.1969 (+0.17%).
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
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The Dow added 52 points to 50,188 (+0.10%) while the S&P 500 fell 0.33% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.59% after U.S. December retail sales came in flat — well below the 0.4% expected — triggering a rush into bonds and repricing of Fed rate-cut bets.
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Brazil’s January IPCA came in at +0.33% month-over-month (matching December), putting the 12-month rate at 4.44% — in line with consensus but above the 4.26% registered in the prior period. Fuel prices were the main driver, with gasoline up 2.06%.
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The result doesn’t derail the March rate-cut case but removes the possibility of a dovish surprise. The Copom’s path to easing from 15.00% remains intact — the question is the pace.
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Gold climbed above $5,070, near a two-week high, as soft U.S. data reinforced expectations for a more accommodative Fed. Brent crude rose to $69.30 for a third straight session on U.S.–Iran tensions.
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The big corporate story: Eneva (ENEV3) crashed 9.66% after the Aneel set energy auction price caps far below market expectations — the largest single-stock impact on the Ibovespa since the start of the year.
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U.S. consumer stalls: December retail sales were flat (0.0% vs. +0.4% expected), signaling the American consumer may be losing momentum. The GDP control group fell 0.1%. Employment cost index rose just 0.7% in Q4 — the slowest since 2020.
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Markets now price three Fed rate cuts this year, up from two a week ago. The 10-year Treasury yield plunged to ~4.16%. This is structurally bullish for EM assets and the rate-cut thesis in Brazil.
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Market Snapshot
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Brazil — February 11, 2026 (Tue close)
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| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa | 185,929 | -0.17% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1969 | +0.17% |
| Selic Rate | 15.00% | MARCH CUT INTACT |
| Brent Crude | $69.30/bbl | 3rd day up |
| Gold | $5,070/oz | 2-wk high |
| Iron Ore | $100.84/t | +0.21% |
| IPCA (Jan) | +0.33% m/m | 4.44% 12m |
| U.S. Retail Sales (Dec) | 0.0% m/m | MISS (exp +0.4%) |
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Today’s Main Event
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Ibovespa eases from record as Eneva crashes and IPCA lands in line
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The Ibovespa gave back a modest 0.17% yesterday, closing at 185,929, after trading in a wide 185,083–186,959 range. The index briefly touched 186,959 intraday — a fresh all-time intraday high — before reversing as the Eneva selloff and a mixed Wall Street session weighed on sentiment. Volume remained robust at R$28.25 billion, signaling continued institutional engagement.
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The session’s dominant story was Eneva (ENEV3), which cratered 9.66% — its worst daily drop in nearly six years — after the Aneel approved price caps for the March energy capacity auction far below market expectations. The regulator set R$128/MWh for existing thermal plants and R$182/MWh for new projects, versus the market’s consensus near R$250/MWh.
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The UBS BB called the development “very negative.” BTG Pactual, which holds a 25.47% stake in Eneva, fell 2.09%. At its worst, Eneva was down 19%, erasing R$4.1 billion in market value before partially recovering.
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Banks continued to hold up, with Santander gaining 1.53% and Itaú adding 0.23%. Braskem surged 8.27% after the Chamber of Deputies approved related legislation.
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BB Seguridade advanced 2.3% following a solid Q4 report with R$2.29 billion in recurring net profit and a R$4.95 billion dividend announcement. Petrobras was flat (PETR4 +0.08%, PETR3 +0.5%) ahead of its Q4 production data released after the close. Vale dipped 0.3% before its Thursday earnings. CSN fell 4.67% among other notable decliners.
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The IPCA came in at +0.33% for January — matching December’s rate and consensus expectations. The 12-month reading edged up to 4.44% from 4.26%, driven mainly by transportation costs (gasoline +2.06%).
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Economist Mariana Rodrigues of SulAmérica reiterated her projection of IPCA at 4.1% for 2026 and Selic at 13% year-end, noting the result “doesn’t alter our assessment for inflation or the conduct of monetary policy.” Interest rate futures opened higher across the curve, with short-end rates climbing up to 6bps.
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After the close, Suzano reported record 2025 annual revenue of R$50 billion and Q4 net profit of R$116 million (reversing last year’s R$6.7 billion loss), with EBITDA of R$21.7 billion and cash costs at R$817/tonne.
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Petrobras surpassed its 2025 production targets with 2.40 million barrels per day — an 11% increase over 2024. Banco do Brasil, Vale, and TOTVS release results later this week.
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Verdict
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Yesterday was a healthy consolidation, not a reversal. The Ibovespa touched a new intraday all-time high at 186,959 before settling back. Eneva’s crash was idiosyncratic — a regulatory surprise that reshuffled thermal energy economics — not a broad market signal. Banks held steady, commodity names were flat, and volume remained strong. The IPCA was neutral: it didn’t surprise in either direction. The March rate cut is still the base case.
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Geopolitics & Oil
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Brent holds $69 as Hormuz tensions persist
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Brent crude held near $69.30 per barrel yesterday, marking a third consecutive session of gains as lingering U.S.–Iran tensions persisted despite diplomatic progress. Iran insists on maintaining uranium enrichment — a core U.S. demand — keeping the contradiction between diplomatic optimism and operational caution in place. India’s purchases of Russian crude remain uncertain after the U.S. trade deal was linked to a freeze on Russian oil imports.
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Petrobras released its Q4 2025 production report after the close, revealing it surpassed annual targets with 2.40 million barrels per day — an 11% increase over 2024. Full financial results due March 5. Investors await OPEC+ and IEA reports later this week.
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Verdict
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Three consecutive daily gains suggest the market is pricing in more risk than resolution. Expect Brent in the $66–72 range unless talks collapse or the India commitment materializes. Petrobras’s record 2025 production is a solid anchor regardless of short-term oil swings.
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Commodities Update
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Gold $5,070 on soft U.S. data; iron ore flat; Suzano posts record year
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Gold climbed above $5,070 per ounce, near a two-week high, as soft U.S. data reinforced Fed easing expectations. Markets have repriced to three rate cuts this year.
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PBoC extended gold purchases for a 15th consecutive month in January. Iron ore held near $100.84/t (+0.21%), stabilizing after a 6.85% decline over the past month. Chinese demand remains subdued ahead of Lunar New Year. Vale reports Q4 earnings Thursday.
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Suzano reported record 2025 revenue of R$50 billion with EBITDA of R$21.7 billion, reversing last year’s R$6.7 billion loss to post Q4 net profit of R$116 million. Cash costs fell to R$817/tonne while net leverage declined to 3.2x. Petrobras released Q4 production data showing 2.40 Mbpd for 2025 — exceeding the upper limit of its target.
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Economic Calendar
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Week of February 10
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| Date | Event | Importance |
| Tue, Feb 10 | Brazil IPCA (Jan): +0.33% m/m, 4.44% 12m ✓ In line | DONE |
| Tue, Feb 10 | U.S. Retail Sales (Dec): 0.0% m/m ✓ Miss | DONE |
| Wed, Feb 11 | Argentina CPI (January) | HIGH |
| Wed, Feb 12 | U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (January, delayed) | HIGH |
| Thu, Feb 13 | U.S. CPI (January, delayed) | HIGH |
| Thu, Feb 13 | Earnings: Banco do Brasil, Vale, TOTVS | HIGH |
| Thu, Feb 13 | OPEC+ Monthly Report / Peru Rate Decision | MEDIUM |
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Technical Analysis
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Key levels
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| Instrument | Support | Current | Resistance |
| Ibovespa | 185,000 / 182,000 | 185,929 | 186,959 / 190,000 |
| USD/BRL | 5.10 / 5.00 | 5.1969 | 5.27 / 5.40 |
| Brent Crude | $66 / $63 | $69.30 | $70 / $72 |
| Gold | $4,900 / $4,700 | $5,070 | $5,200 / $5,400 |
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Latin America Markets
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February 10, 2026
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| Country | Index | Level | Change | FX (USD) |
| Brazil | Ibovespa | 185,929 | -0.17% | 5.20 |
| Mexico | IPC | ~71,100 | ~FLAT | 18.18 |
| Argentina | MERVAL | ~2,980,000 | ~FLAT | 1,474 |
| Colombia | COLCAP | ~2,400 | +0.5% | 3,670 |
| Chile | IPSA | ~11,280 | +0.3% | 855 |
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Mexico: The IPC traded largely flat as investors absorbed soft U.S. retail sales data — a mixed signal for Mexico’s export-dependent economy. The peso weakened modestly to 18.18 per dollar.
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Argentina: The MERVAL remained range-bound ahead of today’s critical January CPI release — the most scrutinized in months given the INDEC credibility crisis. The index remains roughly 7% below its late-January all-time high. Country risk near 516 bps.
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Colombia: COLCAP continued stabilizing above 2,400 as markets digest BanRep’s surprise 100bp rate hike to 10.25%. The peso remains well-supported by the elevated carry trade.
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Chile: The IPSA edged higher as the copper-fueled rally continued. Chile remains the standout LatAm performer since mid-October, with equities up 36.6%. Peru’s rate decision Thursday is the next regional catalyst.
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Key Themes This Week
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Eneva Earthquake
\nAneel’s price caps for the March energy auction — R$128/MWh for existing plants, R$182/MWh for new — came in 40–50% below expectations. ENEV3 lost 9.66%, erasing R$4.1 billion. The thermal energy investment thesis has been fundamentally reset.
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U.S. Consumer Stalls
\nDecember retail sales flat (0.0% vs +0.4% exp). GDP control group -0.1%. Employment costs slowest since 2020. Markets now price three Fed cuts vs. two last week. Structurally bullish for EM and Brazil’s easing narrative.
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IPCA: Neutral, Not Negative
\nJanuary’s +0.33% was in line, with 12-month at 4.44%. Neither derails nor accelerates the March Copom cut. Gasoline (+2.06%) was the main driver. SulAmérica forecast: Selic to 13% by year-end.
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Earnings: Record Quarter
\nSuzano: Record R$50B revenue, reversed R$6.7B loss. Petrobras: 2.40 Mbpd (+11% YoY). BB Seguridade: R$2.29B net profit, R$4.95B dividend. Still ahead: Banco do Brasil, Vale, TOTVS (Thursday).
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Bottom Line
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Yesterday’s session was a pause, not a reversal. The Ibovespa traded as high as 186,959 — a fresh intraday record — before settling at 185,929 (-0.17%). The pullback was driven by a single-stock event (Eneva’s 9.66% crash on the Aneel auction shock) and a mixed Wall Street session, not by deteriorating fundamentals. Banks held, commodity stocks were flat, and volume remained above R$28 billion.
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The IPCA was a non-event by design: +0.33% in line with expectations. It confirmed the March rate cut remains the base case without offering the dovish surprise that would have accelerated positioning. The more important macro signal came from the U.S.: December retail sales at 0.0% (vs. +0.4% expected) triggered a significant repricing. Markets now see three Fed cuts this year, the 10Y yield fell to ~4.16%, and the dollar weakened — all structurally supportive for Brazilian assets.
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Earnings momentum: Suzano’s record year (R$50B revenue), Petrobras beating production targets (2.40 Mbpd), and BB Seguridade’s strong dividend underpin the fundamental case. Banco do Brasil and Vale, due Thursday, are the next major tests. The Eneva crash is a cautionary tale about regulatory risk — but idiosyncratic, not systemic.
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Key risks: U.S. nonfarm payrolls Wednesday (consensus: +55,000); U.S. CPI Thursday; Argentina CPI today (credibility test); Strait of Hormuz escalation; iron ore breakdown; Carnival shutdown Feb 16–17 reduces liquidity.
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© 2026 RT Staff Reporters | Brazil Financial Morning Call
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate