CHILE · POLITICS
Key Facts
—What happened: Kast’s approval fell to 34%, his lowest since taking office in March.
—How big it is: Disapproval hit 61%, the highest of his term so far.
—What it means: Voters are unhappy with the economy and security, pollsters say.
—The catch: Official crime data show homicides falling, not rising, this year.
—Who it hits: Kast’s government, which promised a tough crackdown on crime.
—What comes next: Kast has no election to face until October 2028, giving him room but no deadline.
Six months in, Chile’s president has his lowest approval yet. Voters blame the economy more than crime.
A rocky start for Chile’s most right-wing leader since Pinochet
José Antonio Kast took office on 11 March 2026, promising a hard line on crime and immigration. He is Chile’s most conservative president since Augusto Pinochet, a description that shapes expectations.
Six months later, the mood has soured. The Cadem tracking poll, a widely watched survey, shows approval at 34% and disapproval at 61%.
What the approval numbers say
The 34% approval is a drop of four points from the previous Cadem reading. It is also the lowest level since Kast was inaugurated.
Disapproval was already at 60% in July, so the move is small. The direction is what matters.
Cadem’s own numbers show why. Some 82% rate household purchasing power badly, the worst since 2014, and 91% expect employment to worsen.
The economy is a drag
One clear factor is the economy. Chile’s monthly activity index, the Imacec, shrank 1.5% in July 2026 against a year earlier.
That was its worst fall in over three years, driven by mining and bad weather. The contraction is the only hard economic number directly linked to Kast’s falling approval in the sources.
Full GDP, unemployment, and inflation figures for his first six months are not confirmed. But the July Imacec alone is enough to worry voters.
Security: a tale of two trends
Kast ran on a promise to crack down on organized crime. But the data is mixed.
In his first month, from 11 March to 6 April, the prosecutor’s office recorded 26 homicide or attempted homicide cases. That was up 36.8% from the same period in 2025, when there were 19.
The government’s answer on crime
The government says that short-term spike is misleading. Crime Prevention Subsecretary Ana Victoria Quintana noted that from 1 January to 5 April 2026, total homicides actually fell 14.2% versus 2025.
She also pointed to 2025 ending with an 11.5% drop in completed homicides. That continues a downward trend since a peak in 2022.
What the longer-term data shows
By early September 2026, official figures showed homicides down 17.2% year-to-date, or 117 fewer cases. Violent robberies fell 13.2%.
Kast’s June state-of-the-nation address cited 378 homicide victims through May 31, down from 444 in the same period of 2025. A July balance put the number at 442 through June 28, down 13% from 508.
Why critics still cry foul
Independent analysts note that Chile’s homicide rate had already fallen for three straight years before Kast arrived. That complicates his claim of a turnaround.
They argue that his security narrative is not always backed by the data. The criticism is that policy is driven by political messaging rather than evidence.
What six months does and doesn’t tell you
Six months is a short time to judge a president, especially one facing inherited problems. Chile’s economy was already slowing before Kast took office, and crime trends were improving.
The approval drop is real, but it reflects perceptions as much as results. Voters may be reacting to news of economic contraction and a security narrative that doesn’t match their daily fears.
What to watch next
Kast’s government will need to show progress on both fronts to rebuild support. The next municipal and regional elections are in October 2028.
That is a long runway, and a long time to stay unpopular. For now, the numbers are a warning, not a verdict.
Understanding the Cadem poll
Cadem is a Chilean polling firm that surveys public opinion weekly. Its tracking poll is widely cited by media and politicians as a barometer of presidential popularity.
The poll released on 3 September 2026 surveyed a national sample. Cadem’s published summary does not give a margin of error.
Poll results can shift quickly and are sensitive to recent news. A single bad month can drag approval down, even if longer-term trends are stable.
Cadem is a private polling firm, not an official measure. But it shapes political narratives in Chile.
How Chile’s presidency works
Chile’s president serves a four-year term and cannot run for immediate re-election. The president holds significant power but needs Congress to pass laws.
Kast’s coalition does not control Congress on its own. That forces him to negotiate with opposition parties on key reforms.
The presidency is based in La Moneda palace in Santiago. The next presidential election is set for 18 November 2029.
Understanding this balance of power helps explain why Kast’s agenda faces hurdles. He must build coalitions to deliver on his promises.
Who is affected by Kast’s low approval
The low approval affects Kast’s ability to push his agenda. Lawmakers may be less willing to support unpopular measures.
Investors watch approval ratings as a sign of political stability. A weak president may struggle to implement economic reforms.
Ordinary Chileans feel the impact through public services and security policies. Their daily concerns drive the poll numbers.
The October 2028 municipal and regional elections are the next real test. Kast’s party could lose ground if approval stays low.
What the numbers do and do not prove
The 34% approval is a snapshot, not a trend. It shows current dissatisfaction but does not predict future performance.
The data do not prove that Kast’s policies have failed. They only show that voters are unhappy right now.
Similarly, the crime data show declines but do not capture all forms of crime. Perceptions of insecurity may lag behind statistics.
How Chilean presidents’ approval typically moves in the first year
Chilean presidents often enjoy a honeymoon period after taking office. Approval tends to start high and then decline as difficult decisions take effect.
Historical patterns show that first-year approval can drop sharply. Economic troubles and security issues often accelerate that slide.
Kast’s decline fits a common regional trend. New leaders face high expectations that are hard to meet quickly.
But each presidency is different. Kast’s numbers are low, yet he still has time to recover before the next elections.
What Kast promised on security and what has been enacted
Kast campaigned on a promise to crack down on organized crime and illegal immigration. He pledged a tough ‘mano dura’ approach from day one.
Since taking office, he has pushed for stronger police powers and tougher sentences. Some measures have been enacted, but many require congressional approval.
His government has highlighted falling homicide rates as proof of progress. Critics say the decline started before he arrived.
The gap between promises and results fuels the debate. Voters may judge him on what they see, not just statistics.
The economic numbers behind the criticism
The main economic figure tied to Kast’s approval drop is the July Imacec contraction. That index fell 1.5% compared to a year earlier.
This is the only hard economic number confirmed in the sources. Full GDP, unemployment, and inflation data are not yet available.
Cadem’s poll shows deep pessimism about household finances. 82% rate purchasing power badly, the worst reading since 2014.
These perceptions matter as much as official data. Voters feel the squeeze even if some statistics lag.
Who the named critics are and what they say
The Nationcraft analysis, an independent commentary, argues Kast’s security narrative is a ‘mirage’. It says policy is not aligned with crime data.
That analysis points out that homicides had fallen for three years before Kast. This complicates his claim of a new turnaround.
Other critics focus on governance style. They say his ideological agenda clashes with the need for consensus in Congress.
These are expert opinions, not official statements. They reflect a broader debate about Kast’s approach.
What the government says in its own defence
Government officials reject the idea that security is worsening. They point to falling homicide rates as evidence of progress.
Subsecretary Ana Victoria Quintana has relativized short-term spikes. She emphasizes the longer-term downward trend since 2022.
Kast’s own addresses cite declining homicide numbers. He frames these as results of his policies.
The government argues that perceptions lag behind reality. It says crime data will eventually change public opinion.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Kast’s approval rating after six months?
His approval is 34%, according to a Cadem poll released on 3 September 2026. Disapproval stands at 61%.
Why did Kast’s approval drop?
Cadem links the fall to negative economic news, including a 1.5% contraction in July’s Imacec. Security concerns also weigh on public opinion.
Is crime actually up or down under Kast?
Official data show homicides down 17.2% year-to-date as of early September. But a spike in his first month raised alarms.
What does the government say about the crime data?
Officials say short-term increases are misleading and point to longer-term declines. They highlight a 14.2% drop in homicides from January to early April.
What are the main criticisms of Kast’s government?
Critics cite a security narrative not backed by data and a difficult economy. These are themes from expert commentary, not a single unified assessment.
Connected Coverage
We have also reported on Chile: Kast Falls to a Government Low in the Cadem Poll.
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