Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 8, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

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• Record 2025 dollar outflows yet real strengthened → capital flight offset by high rates & carry trade

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• 2025 trade surplus maintained post-U.S. tariffs → export redirection & commodity resilience

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• Ibovespa slips on bank pressure → Banco Master uncertainty weighs

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• Key data watch: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims + Trade Balance + Nonfarm Productivity

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• Broader risk: Caution ahead of Friday payrolls reinforces “higher-for-longer” Fed view

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\nLatin America’s markets continue the trading week, with Brazil’s B3 in São Paulo set to provide the region’s deepest liquidity for equities, futures, and currency products. Mexico’s Bolsa Mexicana de Valores is also scheduled to open normally.
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Top Story: Record 2025 Dollar Outflows Yet Real Strengthened

\nBrazil recorded its second-largest net dollar outflow on record in 2025, driven by dividend/interest remittances, portfolio outflows amid fiscal concerns, and corporate hedging.
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\nDespite this, the real appreciated significantly due to high Selic rates (carry trade appeal), strong commodity exports, and global USD weakness. Trade surplus remained robust as Brazil redirected flows post-U.S. tariffs, highlighting structural resilience.
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\nRead more on the dollar outflow in Brazil
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\nInvestors view this as a testament to Brazil’s yield-driven attractiveness, though persistent outflows raise questions on sustainability if fiscal risks escalate.
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Economic Agenda for January 8, 2026

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Brazil

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• 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.1%

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• 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) Cons: -0.1% Prev: -0.5%

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• 06:00 AM BRT – IGP-DI Inflation Index (MoM) (Dec)

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Mexico

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• 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.40% Prev: 0.66%

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• 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 3.80% Prev: 3.80%

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• 07:00 AM BRT – Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.42% Prev: 0.19%

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• 07:00 AM BRT – Month Core Inflation (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 4.34% Prev: 4.43%

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• 10:00 AM BRT – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

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Argentina

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• 14:00 PM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)

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Chile

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• 06:00 AM BRT – Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)

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• 06:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: -0.1% Prev: 0.3%

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Colombia

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• 18:00 PM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.38% Prev: 0.07%

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• 18:00 PM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 5.20% Prev: 5.30%

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United States

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• 08:30 AM BRT – Initial Jobless Claims Cons: 213K Prev: 199K

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• 08:30 AM BRT – Continuing Jobless Claims Cons: 1,900K Prev: 1,866K

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• 08:30 AM BRT – Trade Balance (Oct) Cons: -58.10B Prev: -52.80B

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• 08:30 AM BRT – Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) Cons: 4.9% Prev: 3.3%

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• 10:00 AM BRT – Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.5%

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EU

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• Various CPI/PPI/Consumer Sentiment (e.g., PPI YoY (Nov) Cons: -1.9% Prev: -0.5%, Unemployment Rate (Nov) Cons: 6.4%).

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UK

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• 02:00 AM BRT – Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Dec) Act: -0.6% Prev: -0.1%

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China

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• 20:30 PM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 0.8% Prev: 0.7%

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• 20:30 PM BRT – PPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: -1.5% Prev: -2.2%

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\nImplication: Brazil’s Industrial Production and IGP-DI offer insight into manufacturing recovery and inflation pressures. Mexico/Chile/Colombia CPI data test regional price dynamics.
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\nU.S. jobless claims + trade balance + productivity are critical for labor market view, dollar direction, and Fed expectations ahead of Friday payrolls — softer data could ease USD pressure on EM currencies.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Wednesday, January 7, 2026)

\nIbovespa slipped to 161,975 on Banco Master’s unresolved legal/regulatory fallout pressuring banks. Global caution ahead of Friday U.S. payrolls reinforced “higher-for-longer” rates.
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\nEnergy lagged; risk appetite cooled but foreign interest persists (EWZ ~$2.19B net inflows past year). Momentum paused after recent gains.
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\nRead more on Brazil’s B3 performance
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Commodity Markets

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• Gold – Paused after new-year surge (weighing war risk, Fed bets, index flows).

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• Silver – Sudden plunge exposes thin liquidity & leverage.

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• Copper – Record run meets reality as tariff premium warps global flows.

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\nRead more on Gold
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\nRead more on Silver
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\nRead more on Copper
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Currency

\nBrazilian Real → Steady near R$5.38 as Banco Master risk tests confidence but high yields & commodity support hold.
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\nRead more on the Brazilian Real
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Companies and Market

\nEmbraer ends 2025 with record deliveries (strong backlog supports outlook); tourism record (9.3M foreign arrivals in 2025) fuels hiring & economic impact; no other major individual headlines.
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\nRead more on Embraer
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U.S. Markets Yesterday (Wednesday, January 7, 2026)

\nMixed close: S&P 500 6,920.93 (-0.34%), Dow 48,996.08 (-0.94%), Nasdaq 23,584.27 (+0.16%), Russell 2000 2,575.42 (-0.29%). Cooling after early-year gains; selective tech held, cyclicals/industrials trimmed. VIX +4.27% to 15.38 (cautious tone); DXY +0.11% to 98.68.
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\nRegional Peers — Cautious/mixed: Colombia peso tries to base/stocks consolidate near records | Mexico peso steady near 18/IPC breather | Argentina dollar lifeline/stocks blink on risks | Chile peso holds near 895/copper pullback cools rally.
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\nRead more on Colombia
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\nRead more on Mexico
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\nRead more on Argentina
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\nRead more on Chile
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\nNote: Crypto January bounce hits speed bump (thin liquidity, ETF flows reverse); vulnerable to volatility.
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\nRead more

Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate

Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.

Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence

Brazil Morning Call — Live Board

B3 · pre-open setup
Aug 24, 2026 · 23:33

Ibovespa · benchmark

171,906.72
+0.51%

L 167,142day rangeH 168,310

+21.85% over 12 months

Market breadth · 33 names

52% advancing

17 ▲ advancing16 declining ▼

Currencies, rates & key inputs

USD / BRL

5.16

+0.01%

EUR / BRL

5.95

+1.01%

Selic rate

14.00%

·

Brent crude

88.88

-0.03%

Iron ore

161.91

·

Sector heatmap · average move today

Materials

+1.58%

SUZB3, KLABIN

Mining

+1.16%

VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4

Other

+0.76%

BRENT, WTI, IRON ORE, GOLD

Industrials

+0.20%

WEGE3, RENT3

Financials

-0.10%

ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3

Energy

-0.12%

PETR4, PRIO3

Consumer Staples

-0.25%

SLCE3, ABEV3

Utilities

-1.38%

ENEV3

Consumer Disc.

-1.98%

AZZA3, LREN3

Latin America scoreboard

IndexLastTodayStrength

IbovespaBrazil
171,906.72
+0.51%

S&P/BMV IPCMexico
66,105.23
+0.57%

S&P IPSAChile
11,537.98
+1.76%

S&P MERVALArgentina
2,995,129
+2.81%

MSCI COLCAPColombia
2,510.72
+2.09%

BVL S&P PerúPeru
60,222.25
-0.17%

Full instrument board

Instrument	Last	Change	YoY	Prev.	High	Low	Volume
IBOV	171,906.72	+0.51%	+21.85%	171,031.73	168,310	167,142	—
USD/BRL	5.16	+0.01%	-5.13%	5.16	5.18	5.14	—
EUR/BRL	5.95	+1.01%	-5.83%	5.89	5.98	5.94	—
SELIC	14.00%		—	—	—	—	—
BRENT	88.88	-0.03%	+34.42%	88.91	90.07	88.12	29,713
WTI	83.11	-0.11%	+31.57%	83.20	84.35	82.40	166,848
IRON ORE	161.91	—	+58.10%		161.91	161.91	1
GOLD	4,461	+1.78%	+33.20%	4,383	4,503	4,421	139,824
SILVER	65.59	+1.26%	+73.05%	64.77	66.98	64.81	46,406
LITHIUM	75.20	+1.47%	+62.95%	74.11	75.80	75.08	89,275
SOY	1,184	+3.20%	+17.05%	1,148	1,199	1,168	163,179
CORN	480.50	+10.02%	+29.34%	436.75	480.75	459.50	341,248
WHEAT	655.00	+3.93%	+29.70%	630.25	657.75	631.50	128,793
COFFEE	317.25	-5.51%	+0.67%	335.75	321.20	313.55	21,747
SUGAR	16.43	-1.79%	-3.01%	16.73	17.11	16.22	171,992
ORANGE JUICE	138.55	-0.47%	-45.38%	139.20	141.05	137.50	703
COTTON	85.03	+2.33%	+26.78%	83.09	82.90	81.96	16,546
BEEF	223.60	-3.93%	-5.18%	232.75	226.40	223.00	16,126
CATTLE	339.10	-3.16%	-1.82%	350.17	345.50	338.60	10,164
COCOA	5,719	+3.18%	-34.96%	5,543	5,779	5,574	26,773
PETR4	41.64	-0.05%	+35.19%	41.66	41.97	41.15	41,499,400
VALE3	72.97	+0.83%	+30.75%	72.37	73.54	72.66	17,658,000
SUZB3	41.33	+2.35%	-23.55%	40.38	41.48	40.35	3,914,900
KLABIN	17.69	+0.80%	-2.95%	17.55	17.74	17.48	2,057,400
SLCE3	13.34	+0.30%	-12.25%	13.30	13.42	13.20	1,454,200
ABEV3	14.89	-0.80%	+21.91%	15.01	15.07	14.81	16,453,100
ITUB4	38.60	-1.03%	+4.57%	39.00	39.34	38.39	29,487,800
BBDC4	16.85	+0.36%	+3.50%	16.79	16.90	16.67	19,416,900
BBAS3	19.37	+0.47%	+0.73%	19.28	19.44	19.16	11,069,200
B3SA3	14.26	-0.21%	+12.73%	14.29	14.47	14.11	33,037,800
WEGE3	47.59	+0.49%	+29.99%	47.36	48.08	47.36	3,364,600
PRIO3	59.14	-0.19%	+50.67%	59.25	59.81	58.74	3,325,600
RENT3	34.68	-0.09%	+0.84%	34.71	34.96	34.35	7,979,100
AZZA3	15.89	-2.63%	-53.76%	16.32	16.42	15.82	1,330,300
CSNA3	4.30	+0.47%	-42.65%	4.28	4.41	4.26	10,076,100
GGBR4	24.69	+2.19%	+51.38%	24.16	24.85	24.18	7,047,600
ENEV3	24.21	-1.38%	+70.49%	24.55	24.64	23.99	9,297,000
LREN3	11.87	-1.33%	-28.65%	12.03	12.17	11.83	9,683,300

Largest moves today

CORN
480.50
+10.02%

COFFEE
317.25
-5.51%

WHEAT
655.00
+3.93%

BEEF
223.60
-3.93%

SOY
1,184
+3.20%

COCOA
5,719
+3.18%

CATTLE
339.10
-3.16%

AZZA3
15.89
-2.63%

The session read

The Ibovespa rose 0.51%, with breadth positive — 17 of 33 names higher. Materials led, while Consumer Disc. lagged.

From The Rio Times

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This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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