Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 13, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

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• Fed independence probe → rattles global markets, boosts safe-haven demand for gold amid U.S. policy uncertainty

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• Banco Master liquidation scrutiny → adds risk premium to Brazilian banks, weighing on Ibovespa sentiment

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• Commodities hold highs → copper and oil support exporters despite profit-taking, amid supply tightness

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• Global records with volatility → U.S. and regional equities hit highs but dip on Fed drama, dollar wobbles

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\nBroader risk: Political shocks in U.S. monetary policy and ongoing fiscal pressures in Brazil could trigger volatility in rates/FX/equities/precious metals
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\nToday’s economic agenda features several key events across regions. In Brazil, the Brazilian Service Sector Growth (YoY) (Nov) at 6:00 AM BRT and Brazilian Service Sector Growth (MoM) (Nov) at 6:00 AM BRT assess service activity, crucial for tracking domestic demand and GDP momentum amid fiscal tightening.
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\nIn the U.S., CPI (YoY) (Dec) at 7:30 AM EST measures annual inflation, influencing Fed rate expectations and global dollar strength; Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) at 7:30 AM EST strips out volatiles for core trends, key for policy bets.
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\nAnd FOMC Member Musalem Speaks at 9:35 AM EST provides insights on U.S. rates, potentially signaling hawkish or dovish shifts amid independence concerns.
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Economic Agenda for January 13, 2026

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Brazil

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• 6:00 AM BRT – Brazilian Service Sector Growth (YoY) (Nov) Cons: – Prev: 2.2%

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• 6:00 AM BRT – Brazilian Service Sector Growth (MoM) (Nov) Cons: – Prev: 0.3%

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Mexico

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• No major releases today.

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Argentina

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• 1:00 PM ART – Inflation Rate MoM (Dec) Cons: 2.5% Prev: 2.2%

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• 1:00 PM ART – Inflation Rate YoY (Dec) Cons: 31.4% Prev: 31.2%

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Chile

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• No major releases today.

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Colombia

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• No major releases today.

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United States

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• 7:30 AM EST – CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 2.7% Prev: 2.7%

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• 7:30 AM EST – Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 2.7% Prev: 2.6%

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• 9:35 AM EST – FOMC Member Musalem Speaks Cons: – Prev: –

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EU

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• 3:40 AM CET – Spanish 12-Month Letras Auction Cons: – Prev: 1.990%

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• 4:00 AM CET – Italian 3-Year BTP Auction Cons: – Prev: 2.58%

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• 4:30 AM CET – German 5-Year Bobl Auction Cons: – Prev: 2.270%

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UK

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• 3:00 AM GMT – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks Cons: – Prev: –

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China

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• 9:00 PM CST – Balance of Trade (Dec) Cons: $111.68B Prev: $105B

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• 9:00 PM CST – Exports YoY (Dec) Cons: 5.9% Prev: –

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• 9:00 PM CST – Imports YoY (Dec) Cons: 1.9% Prev: –

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\nImplication: Today’s Brazilian service data is the main domestic event — softer growth could reinforce easing bets, bolstering real & equities.
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\nU.S. CPI and Fed speaks are global highlights: hotter inflation/hawkish tones could reinforce dollar, pressure EM currencies & commodities. Softer data would ease dollar, support risk assets including BRL.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Monday, January 12, 2026)

\nIbovespa -0.13% to 163,150.35 on R$22.9 billion turnover. Banco Master probe and Fed independence scare weighed on banks, offsetting commodity support from copper highs; top gainers included Vamos +8.18%, Assaí +4.55%, Brava Energia +4.50%.
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\nEarly Tuesday mini-futures ~165,186–165,805 (~1.2% above cash), USD/BRL near 5.3757. Charts consolidating with support at 162,600–163,500, weekly RSI 71.
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Commodity Markets

\nGold – Slightly lower around $4,594/oz after Monday’s record near $4,600; profit-taking emerges but safe-haven demand persists amid Fed probe and policy uncertainty; technicals positive but overbought.
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\nSilver – Firm around $86.4/oz after sharp run; linked to gold sentiment, big swings continue; momentum intact but pullback risk.
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\nCopper – Holding near $13,000/ton on LME; close to records amid supply tightness and strikes; uptrend supported by positioning.
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\nPlatinum – Down to ~$2,342/oz after rally; risk trimming in precious metals; RSI stretched short-term.
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\nPalladium – Around $1,890/oz, lower with amplified swings; positioning and liquidity drive moves; uptrend pauses.
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\nAluminium – Slightly lower at ~$3,173/ton on LME; stock tightness supports but early softness shows; U.S. premium high.
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\nIron Ore – Around $108/ton; softer tone after gains; China steel margins pressure demand, port stocks cap upside.
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Currency

\nBrazilian Real → Steady near R$5.3725 after Fed independence scare; minimal change (+0.11%–0.12%) amid global dollar wobble; technical consolidation, support ~5.35, resistance 5.40.
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Companies and Market

\nGol’s go-private plan triggers a share spike and a fresh test for minority rights → Tender offer at R$10.13 per lot of 1,000 preferred shares (GOLL54); 50%+ surge in thin liquidity; concerns over pricing fairness and protections.
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\nBrava Energia, Vibra Energia, and CBA: What Q3 2025 really tells us about Brazil’s oil, fuels, and aluminum → Brava: Record EBITDA R$1.3B, output 92k boe/d, lifting costs $13/bbl; Vibra: Net income R$407M, volumes steady 9.3M m³, leverage 2.7x; CBA: Net income R$131M, sales 132k tonnes, margins compressed.
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\nA criminal probe of the Fed chair rattles markets and tests U.S. central bank independence → Justice Dept. inquiry on Powell’s testimony re: $2.5B building costs; markets dip 0.5%, volatility up; risks policy independence.
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U.S. Markets Yesterday (Monday, January 12, 2026)

\nNear records: Dow +0.2% to 49,590.20, S&P 500 +0.2% to 6,977.27, Nasdaq +0.3% to 23,733.90.
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\nEarly weakness from Fed probe subpoenas recovered; tech/staples led, financials lagged. Rates steady, 10-year ~4.19%. Weekly gains: Dow ~2.3%, S&P ~1.6%, Nasdaq ~1.9%.
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Regional Peers — Mixed/resilient:

\nColombia peso firm near 3,711/USD & COLCAP up 1.2% to 2,213.35 amid oil support
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\nMexico peso steady ~17.91/USD, IPC near 66,746 on miners led by Peñoles +8.79%
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\nArgentina peso tight ~1,467.5/USD post-debt payment, Merval down 0.4% to 3,076,947
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\nChile peso gains to ~884/USD, IPSA up 1.25% to 11,066.16 lifted by copper surge
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\nNote: Bitcoin stalls below $92,000 as policy shocks and ETF outflows shape crypto’s mood — ~$91,900 amid volatility; Monero +16%, but Ether/Solana down; range repair phase.
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate

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