Fed Independence Shock Ripples Into Mexico: Peso Holds Firm, IPC Prints New High

Key Points

• USD/MXN held near 17.91 after a 17.8798–17.9846 session range, as traders repriced U.S. policy risk.
• Mexico’s IPC traded around 66,746, led by miners and materials while airlines lagged.
• Technically, the peso trend stays firm, but both FX and equities look stretched on shorter timeframes.

Mexico’s peso opened Tuesday steady near 17.91 per dollar after Monday ended at 17.9335, extending a strong start to 2026.

The impulse was external: a criminal investigation targeting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell revived fears that political pressure could erode central-bank independence. The dollar index fell about 0.4% on the day, while gold hit a record near $4,600 an ounce.

Two market voices captured the tone. Ray Attrill, National Australia Bank’s head of currency strategy, said the “open warfare” around the Fed was “not a good look for the U.S. dollar.”

Andrew Lilley, chief rates strategist at Barrenjoey, warned that “Trump is pulling at the loose threads of central bank independence.”

Mexico’s own backdrop has stayed supportive. Banxico has sounded cautious about cutting too quickly, helping keep carry demand under the peso.

On the charts, USD/MXN remains heavy. Daily momentum is subdued (RSI near 39, with weekly RSI in the mid-30s). Initial support sits around 17.89–17.91, with a deeper level near 17.80. Resistance clusters around 17.96, then 18.02–18.10.

Mexico equities kept running. The S&P/BMV IPC hovered around 66,746, with turnover near 148.97 million. Top gainers were Industrias Peñoles (+8.79%), Grupo México (+3.58%), Orbia (+3.39%), GCC (+2.22%), and Bimbo (+1.45%).

Top losers were Controladora Vuela (−2.30%), Becle/Cuervo (−2.08%), Gentera (−1.34%), Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (−1.23%), and OMA B (−0.73%).

On the index charts, price remains above key moving averages, but daily RSI in the upper-60s suggests momentum is getting crowded.

The move also showed up in EWW, the main Mexico equity ETF, with a $72.05 NAV on Jan. 12, about 1.70 million shares traded, and roughly $2.0 billion in net assets.

The trend is still up on daily and weekly charts, but the 4-hour RSI is hot, pointing to pullback risk even as the broader advance holds.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Mexican markets and Latin American financial news.

For regional context, see the Brazil’s Ibovespa report: Brazil’s Ibovespa.

For regional context, see the Argentina’s Merval report: Argentina’s Merval.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error