Lula’s Public Security Ministry Pledge and the Runoff
PROFILE · BRAZIL
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, where crime by factions and militias ranks as a leading voter concern before the 25 October runoff.
- —Why it matters President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has promised a new public security ministry, but only once Congress passes his security amendment.
- —Why now The Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee cleared the amendment on Wednesday 14 October, 11 days before Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —What happened On Monday 12 October Lula repeated that the ministry will follow approval of the amendment, known as PEC 18/2025.
- —The numbers The text needs 49 of 81 senators in each of two floor rounds. The Chamber of Deputies passed it by 461 votes to 14 in its second round in March.
- —What it means for you Street policing stays with Brazil’s states, but the amendment toughens prison rules for faction leaders and shields federal security funds.
- —Still open Whether the Senate votes before 25 October, and what budget and structure the promised ministry would have.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 85% chance of winning the presidency and Lula 14.5% (14 October, 2:47 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 85% and Kalshi at 86% (Lula: 15% and 15%), as of 14 October, 3:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has made a public security ministry the centrepiece of his runoff pitch on crime. He has tied it to one condition: Congress must first pass his constitutional amendment on public security.
That amendment cleared the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee in Brasília on Wednesday 14 October and now heads to the floor. For US investors and travellers, the fight shows how crime has become the central test for Brazil’s next government.
Lula, of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), faces conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) on Sunday 25 October. Flávio is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Who Lula Is and Why Security Became His Test
Lula is a founder of the PT and is serving his third term as president, after two terms from 2003 to 2010. G1 notes that his government’s record on security is a main target of criticism from political opponents.
Gazeta do Povo writes that Brazilians rank public security as their biggest worry and as the government’s main failing. Folha de S.Paulo reports that Lula hardened his security message after finishing behind Flávio in the first round.
On Wednesday 7 October, meeting PT lawmakers, Lula launched a new campaign line, G1 reported. “For working people, protection; for the criminal, prison,” he said, adding that this was the motto “from now on”.
He argued that the states had “not coped” alone with the split of security duties set by the 1988 Constitution. In his view, the amendment would let the federal government take part “actively” in fighting organised crime.
The Public Security Ministry Pledge and Its Condition
Lula had promised a separate public security ministry before, but Folha notes that the promise was not kept during his current term. He has now made the new ministry conditional on final approval of the amendment.
“When the security PEC is approved, we will create the Ministry of Public Security,” Lula said on Monday 12 October, Folha reported. He added that the government could then define the role of the federal government in public security.
His government plan, filed with the electoral court, says the ministry would coordinate with states and municipalities, Agência Brasil reports. The plan also cites the Anti-Faction Law signed this year and a 2026 federal programme against organised crime.
Brazil today handles security policy through the Ministry of Justice and Public Security, which also runs the Federal Police. A new ministry would split that portfolio, though no draft structure has been published.
How the Amendment Reached the Senate Floor
Lula handed the amendment to the heads of both chambers of Congress at the Planalto Palace on 23 April 2025. The Chamber of Deputies approved a reworked version on Wednesday 4 March 2026, by 461 votes to 14 in the second round.
The Chamber’s rapporteur, Mendonça Filho of the centre-right União Brasil, dropped a plan to lower the age of criminal responsibility to 16. In the Senate, rapporteur Rogério Carvalho of the PT accepted 4 of 81 amendments and removed a clause on betting revenue.
On Wednesday the committee closed its review in about ten minutes, after its chair declared three pending requests moot because their authors were absent. Jovem Pan reported that no senator from the Vanguarda bloc of the PL, Novo and Avante had registered attendance.
The chair, Otto Alencar of the centrist Social Democratic Party (PSD), said Senate President Davi Alcolumbre of União Brasil saw room to approve it before the runoff. Alencar said the aim was that “the president can create the Ministry of Public Security”, Agência Brasil reported.
As a constitutional amendment, the text needs at least 49 of the 81 senators in each of two floor rounds. Senators can shorten the usual gap between rounds only by approving a special calendar, Agência Senado reports.
Alencar said floor debate could begin as early as Thursday 15 October, once senators finish voting on ending the six-day working week. He added that party leaders had backed a vote on the amendment, Agência Senado reported.
For the full content of the text, see our explainer Brazil’s Public Security Amendment Explained. The earlier committee stage is covered in Brazil Senate Panel Votes on Gang Crackdown.
Where Both Camps Stand on Security
Lula’s camp pairs the amendment with plans to choke off factions’ finances, within the limits of the Constitution. Flávio’s camp wants factions labelled narco-terrorist groups, five new federal maximum-security prisons and criminal responsibility from age 16, Agência Brasil reports.
Governors critical of Lula have argued that the text lets the federal government invade powers the Constitution gives the states, Gazeta do Povo reported. The government replies that it would act only in integrated operations, mainly against criminal factions.
On Thursday 8 October Lula used an Instagram video to challenge senators allied with Flávio to vote for the amendment, Correio Braziliense reported. Among the absent authors of Wednesday’s dropped requests was Carlos Portinho, the PL’s leader in the Senate, Agência Brasil reported.
Readers can compare the two programmes in Lula vs Flávio: Where They Stand on 7 Issues. The wider balance of power is mapped in Who Dominates Brazil, Elites and Regions Explained.
What It Means for You
For US travellers, street policing in Brazil stays with state forces, so day-to-day safety will not change quickly. The amendment instead targets faction and militia leaders, with maximum-security prisons and confiscation of criminal assets.
For investors, the funding clauses shield federal security funds from budget freezes, except when revenue falls short. They also steer 10% of the yearly surplus of the pre-salt oil fund to security, Agência Senado reports.
Politically, a floor win would give Lula a security result to show voters before 25 October. A delay or defeat would let Flávio’s campaign argue that the government has not delivered on crime.
Brazil’s regional ties are set out in Brazil and Its Neighbours in South America. Visitors to the capital, where the Senate will vote, can use our Brasília city page.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the Senate will hold both floor rounds before Sunday 25 October. Correio Braziliense notes that changes of substance would send the text back to the Chamber of Deputies.
No date, budget or structure has been published for the promised public security ministry. It is also unclear who would lead it and how it would share work with the Justice Ministry.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 85% chance of winning the presidency and Lula 14.5%, as of 2:47 p.m. ET on 14 October. The Flávio contract stood about 1 point lower than a day earlier.
The main Brazil election market has drawn about US$181.6 million in bets, including about US$898,000 in the past 24 hours. These are real-money bets, not polls, and no market tracks the security amendment itself.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 85% · Lula 14.5% (US$182 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 86% · Lula 15%
As of 14 October, 3:40 pm ET (20:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Lula’s public security ministry pledge?
Lula has promised to create a Ministry of Public Security once Congress approves his security amendment, PEC 18/2025. He repeated that condition on Monday 12 October.
What happened in the Senate on 14 October?
The Constitution and Justice Committee finished its review of the amendment and sent it to the Senate floor. The final step took about ten minutes, with senators from the Vanguarda bloc of the PL, Novo and Avante absent.
How many votes does the amendment need?
It needs at least 49 of the 81 senators in each of two floor rounds. Substantive changes would send the text back to the Chamber of Deputies.
What does Flávio Bolsonaro propose on security?
His plan would label factions narco-terrorist groups and build five new federal maximum-security prisons. He also backs criminal responsibility from age 16.
Will the ministry exist before the runoff?
No, the amendment must first pass the Senate, and no date for the ministry has been set. Its budget and structure have not been published.
Sources: Agência Senado · Agência Câmara · Agência Brasil, 14 October · Agência Brasil, 9 October · Folha de S.Paulo · G1 · Gazeta do Povo · Jovem Pan · Correio Braziliense, 8 October · Correio Braziliense, 14 October
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief