Brazil Election Polls Tighten, Augusto Cury Surges and Markets Cheer
BRAZIL · POLITICS & MARKETS
Key Facts
What happened: Two new Brazil election polls show President Lula leading the first round by six to ten points, but slipping.
The surprise: Self-help author Augusto Cury jumped to 7.8% in the AtlasIntel survey and 11% in the BTG/Nexus one, taking third place.
The real story: In a run-off, Lula is now statistically tied with both Flávio Bolsonaro and Ronaldo Caiado in the BTG/Nexus numbers.
The catch: Half of voters reject Flávio Bolsonaro and 49% reject Lula, so both front-runners are winning a race few love.
The market read: Ibovespa futures rose more than 1% after the polls, and the dollar fell against the real on Monday morning.
What comes next: The first round is on 4 October 2026, with a run-off on 25 October if no one wins outright.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79.2% · Lula 20.5% (US$184 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 16 October, 1:20 am ET (06:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Two fresh Brazil election polls show a tightening race, a surprise third candidate and a stock market that liked what it saw: Ibovespa futures rose more than 1% on Monday after the numbers landed.
Update — September 2026
Brazil votes on October 4, with a likely runoff on October 25. For the latest polls, results and live coverage, see our Brazil Election 2026 results and live tracker.
What the new Brazil election polls actually say
The first poll is from AtlasIntel, commissioned by Bloomberg and published on Sunday. It gives President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43.4% of first-round voting intentions, against 33.7% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
That is a lead of 9.7 points, and it hides a shift. Both leaders slipped from the institute’s late-July round, when Lula had 44.9% and his rival 35.8%.
In a run-off between the two, AtlasIntel puts Lula at 47.1% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42.6%. That gap has narrowed as the campaign has begun in earnest.
The second poll is from the Nexus institute, commissioned by the investment bank BTG Pactual and released on Monday. It shows Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33% in the first round.
Both men fell there too, from 41% and 37% in the previous Nexus round. The trend across both Brazil election polls is the same: the front-runners are leaking votes.
The Augusto Cury surge is the real movement
The man collecting those votes is Augusto Cury, a psychiatrist and bestselling self-help author running for the small Avante party. AtlasIntel now has him at 7.8%, up from just 1.6% a month ago.
That is a jump of 6.2 points in a single month, and it puts him in third place. The institute’s breakdown shows him drawing support from voters of Flávio Bolsonaro, of Lula and of Romeu Zema, the Minas Gerais governor.
The BTG/Nexus survey is even more striking. It puts Cury at 11% in the first round, a level no third-way candidate has reached in this campaign.
Cury has surged on social media in recent days, gaining millions of followers. Whether that converts into durable votes is the open question of the week.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-1.06%
204,324.26
-1.06%
67,180.21
+0.58%
10,971.88
+0.05%
2,859,051
+0.82%
2,580.50
-0.07%
59,543.73
+1.12%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 204,324.26 | -1.06% | +21.85% | 206,505.98 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
A run-off that is a coin flip
The BTG/Nexus numbers matter most for the second round. Lula leads the first round comfortably, but he is statistically tied with Flávio Bolsonaro in a run-off, at 46% to 45%.
He is also tied with Ronaldo Caiado, the former Goiás governor, inside the poll’s two-point margin of error. In plain terms: the presidency is competitive with at least two different opponents.
Rejection is the other hard number. Half of those polled say they would never vote for Flávio Bolsonaro, and 49% say the same about Lula.
The government’s ratings match that divide. The BTG/Nexus poll finds 51% disapproving of Lula’s administration against 46% who approve.
This is why Cury’s rise matters beyond the novelty. Every point he takes from a front-runner reshapes who reaches the run-off and who wins it.
Why the market liked a tighter race
Brazilian assets rallied on Monday morning after the polls. Ibovespa futures rose more than 1%, with the benchmark index trading around the 178,000-point mark, according to Brazilian financial press reports.
Petrobras, the state oil company, and the steelmakers led the gains. The dollar fell against the real, which traded near 5.18 per dollar (US$1 bought about R$5.18).
The logic is familiar to anyone who watches Brazil. Investors read a tighter race and a stronger third candidate as pressure for market-friendly policies from whoever wins.
A competitive run-off also weakens the chance of a first-round knockout. Markets in Brazil tend to reward uncertainty that pushes candidates toward the centre.
What to watch from here
The first test is whether Cury holds. Self-help fame has produced Brazilian candidacies before, and most faded once television advertising began.
Free campaign advertising on TV and radio has now started, and Avante has only seconds of airtime. The big parties have minutes, and airtime still moves votes in Brazil.
The second test is the next round of Brazil election polls, due within days. If Cury keeps double digits in BTG/Nexus and holds near 8% in AtlasIntel, the race changes shape.
The third is the first-round threshold. A candidate needs more than half of valid votes on 4 October to avoid a run-off on 25 October, and nobody is close to that today.
Frequently Asked Questions
What do the latest Brazil election polls show?
AtlasIntel gives Lula 43.4% against 33.7% for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round. BTG/Nexus shows Lula at 39% and Bolsonaro at 33%, with Augusto Cury jumping to 11%.
Who is Augusto Cury? Read our full Cury profile.
He is a psychiatrist and bestselling self-help author running for the small Avante party. He surged from 1.6% to 7.8% in the AtlasIntel poll within a month.
Would Lula win a second round?
Not clearly. BTG/Nexus has him statistically tied with Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% to 45%, and also tied with Ronaldo Caiado inside the margin of error.
How did Brazilian markets react to the polls?
Ibovespa futures rose more than 1% on Monday morning, led by Petrobras and the steelmakers, with the index near 178,000 points. The dollar fell against the real.
When is the Brazilian election?
The first round is on Sunday 4 October 2026. A run-off between the top two candidates, if needed, follows on 25 October 2026.
Connected Coverage
Yesterday we mapped how the race reached this point in Brazil Election Polls Converge: Lula Leads, the Runoff Is a Coin Flip. More on the vote and the economy sits on our Brazil hub.
Sources: AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll of 30 August 2026; BTG Pactual/Nexus poll of 31 August 2026; Estadão; Congresso em Foco; Brazilian financial press market reports of 31 August 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief