Argentina’s Peso Holds Steady as Dollar Slumps, Merval Rebounds

Key Points

• A weaker dollar and Greenland-linked tariff threats set the tone.
• The blue-dollar premium stayed near 3%, an unusually tight signal for Argentina.
• The Merval bounced, but charts still warn of fragile momentum.

Argentina’s peso opened steadier on the screens, but the driver was global. The U.S. dollar slid overnight, reshaping emerging-market risk.

On the ICE benchmark, USD/ARS hovered near 1,434 in early hours, slightly below the prior close near 1,436. The move followed a quick dip from the mid-1,450s, which left positioning defensive.

The dollar index fell about 0.53% toward 98.6 after U.S.–Europe tariff threats tied to Greenland revived a “sell America” mood. Davos chatter added uncertainty as traders looked for de-escalation.

At home, the parallel market stayed calm. The blue dollar traded around 1,500, while the Banco Nación sell rate was near 1,460.

Financial dollars sat close behind: CCL near 1,491.5 and MEP near 1,469.9. A tight spread usually points to functioning controls and arbitrage, not a solved inflation problem.

Domestic politics kept its grip on expectations. One market voice described “maximum tension” globally, while another blamed tariff-driven fear for the risk-off tone.

Investors also watched February’s extraordinary congressional sessions, where labor reform is expected to dominate. A recent wholesale inflation print near 2.4% month-on-month suggested disinflation may be slowing, and markets prefer rules over discretionary controls.

The central bank’s reserve strategy remained a key anchor. Traders highlighted a buying approach designed to avoid exceeding about 5% of daily FX volume, with scope for block purchases outside the main market.

That discipline helps explain why the parallel gap has not blown out. Equities reflected the same push and pull. The S&P Merval rebounded about 1% to roughly 2.94 million, and a screen later showed around 2.97 million.

Country risk sat near 569 and dollar bonds were steady. ARGT stayed a sentiment gauge, with net assets around $756 million and NAV near $91–$92.

Early leaders included Banco Macro, BBVA, Pampa Energía, Metrogas, and YPF. Lagging names included Comercial del Plata, Transener, Central Puerto’s dollar line, Ternium Argentina, and Grupo Galicia’s dollar line.

Technicals remained cautious: 4-hour USD/ARS looked oversold, with RSI near 31, and resistance clustered around 1,443–1,446.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Argentine markets and Latin American financial news.

For regional context, see the Brazil’s Ibovespa report for the same date: Brazil’s Ibovespa.

For regional context, see the Chile’s IPSA report for the same date: Chile’s IPSA.

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