When Criminal Groups Make the Rules: Brazil’s Parallel Governance Problem

Key Points

• Estimates range from about 28.5 million to 61.6 million Brazilians living near, or under, criminal rule.
• Survey data links reported criminal presence to clandestine cemeteries, disappearances, and open drug-use zones.
• Homicides fell in 2023, but prison networks and territorial capture keep fear high.

In parts of Brazil, factions and militias are acting like local authorities—setting informal rules, enforcing them, and charging for “protection.”

An academic study published online in August 2025 estimated that about 14% of people surveyed across Latin America experience “criminal governance,” equivalent to roughly 77–101 million people; applied to Brazil, analysis has put the population living under “different rules” at 50.6–61.6 million (about 25%–30%).

A narrower benchmark came in October 2025, when Datafolha, in a survey commissioned by the Brazilian Public Security Forum, interviewed 2,007 Brazilians aged 16+ in 130 municipalities (±2 points).

Nineteen percent—about 28.5 million people—said factions or militias are present in their neighborhood, up five points from 2024.

Among those reporting local criminal presence, 27% said they know of clandestine cemeteries in their city (vs 16% overall), and about 40% said they routinely pass large open-air drug-use zones.

Brazil grapples with rising violence

Sixteen percent reported seeing violent Military Police approaches (25% among ages 16–24); 21% cited off-duty police selling private security; 8% said a relative/acquaintance is missing (≈13.4m).

Prisons amplify the trend. A Justice Ministry mapping has pointed to at least 88 organized criminal groups affecting the penitentiary system in the past three years, with two—PCC and Comando Vermelho—showing sustained national and international reach.

Brazil’s homicide rate fell to 21.2 per 100,000 in 2023, with 45,747 killings—still more than 125 a day. Anxiety is rising: a Genial/Quaest poll published in November 2025 (2,004 interviews; Nov 6–9; ±2 points) found 38% naming violence as the country’s top concern.

Around the same period, Rio’s state government updated a major operation’s toll to 121 dead, including four police officers; reporting cited roughly 2,500 agents, 113 arrests, and large seizures.

The labels matter less than the trajectory. Restoring consistent rules will require coordinated intelligence, tighter prison control, and political willingness to confront predatory groups instead of explaining them away.

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