Tariff U-Turn And Equity Inflows Lift Brazil’s Real

Key Points

• USD/BRL traded near R$5.319 on Thursday morning after Wednesday’s sharp drop.
• A calmer Greenland narrative improved risk appetite, while Brazil drew fresh equity inflows.
• Charts show short-term oversold signals, with 5.30 support and 5.35–5.36 as first resistance.

The real opened Thursday with the dollar near R$5.319, matching the early prints on your charts. It extended a fast move that began the day before.

On Wednesday, spot USD/BRL closed at R$5.3209, down 1.10%. That was the lowest close since early December. It reversed Tuesday’s risk-driven rise to R$5.3805.

The swing was driven less by Brazil data and more by Washington’s tone. After days of tariff threats aimed at Europe, President Donald Trump spoke in Davos about Greenland.

He said he would not use force. He also pointed to a deal path through NATO channels. Markets heard something they rarely get from political drama: limits.

For currency traders, that reduced the odds of a sudden trade shock. It also cooled the “everyone hedges at once” pattern that often hits emerging markets first.

Brazil FX rallies as inflows surge

Brazil benefited quickly, helped by strong demand for local assets. The Ibovespa surged to another record, with reports of foreign inflows supporting the move. Oil was firmer, but the mood shift mattered more for FX.

In derivatives, the most traded February dollar future fell alongside spot. It was quoted around R$5.332 late Wednesday. Brazil’s central bank kept its rollover program visible.

It offered up to 50,000 traditional FX swap contracts, about $2.5 billion notional. The aim is to roll contracts maturing on February 2. The tool is meant to smooth volatility in the futures curve.

The technical picture now looks stretched in the short term. On the 4-hour chart, RSI sank near 29, a classic oversold read. The daily RSI sits in the mid-30s, still soft but stabilizing.

The weekly chart remains range-bound, with RSI in the low-40s. That points to consolidation rather than a new trend. Support is concentrated around 5.30–5.31. Resistance starts near 5.35–5.36, then thickens above 5.41.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Brazil Holds Back as Paraguay and Argentina Join Trump’s Pea This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Brazil affairs and Latin American financial news.