StoneX lowers forecast for Brazil’s soybean exports and consumption; projects record corn crop

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The volume, if confirmed, would be the lowest for Brazil, the world’s largest exporter and producer of the oilseed, since 2019, when the country exported 74 million tons, according to industry data. Shipments would fall short of the 2021 record of 86.1 million tons.

Earlier this week, StoneX revised downward for the second consecutive month its soybean crop projection, now estimated at 126.5 million tons, down 5.6% from last year, when it reached an all-time high of 134 million tons.

StoneX has also revised down the country’s soybean consumption projection, from 49 to 48.2 million tons, down from 47.5 million tons in 2021. Ending stocks in 2022 are now estimated at 2.2 million tons, down from 3.26 million tons in 2021.

Meanwhile, StoneX further sees a chance of a record corn crop, as most of Brazil’s production of the cereal is harvested in winter.

The consultancy forecasts a total production of 116 million tons, compared to 86.63 million tons in the previous cycle, when crops suffered from drought to frost.

“The good progress of planting observed so far increases the possibility that much of the crop is planted within the ideal window, supporting the maintenance of favorable expectations for off-season crops,” said Market Intelligence group analyst João Pedro Lopes, in a note.

For the first harvest, the consultant cut 5.5% from the previous month’s projection, to 25.3 million tons of corn, due to adverse weather that also affected soybean crops.

With a smaller than expected crop, Brazilian exports are now estimated at 40 million tons, down from 41 million tons in the previous projection. Last cycle, Brazil exported 20.9 million tons.

Ending stocks for the 2021/22 season are now estimated at 9.5 million tons, compared to 7.92 million tons in the last crop.