Argentina Is Getting Expensive in Dollars, Economist Dal Poggetto Warns
ARGENTINA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —The country Argentina, Latin America’s third-largest economy, has cut inflation sharply under President Javier Milei, partly by keeping its peso stable.
- —The background Consumer prices still rose 1.7 percent in August and 21.3 percent in the first eight months of 2026.
- —Why now Activity fell 2.9 percent in July from June, the worst monthly drop in six years, and banks are cutting growth forecasts.
- —What happened On Saturday 3 October economist Marina Dal Poggetto said on the radio that “Argentina is getting more expensive in dollars”.
- —The numbers The central bank bought US$473 million in September, its smallest monthly purchase of 2026, down from US$768 million in August.
- —What it means for you Visitors and expats spending pesos get less for each dollar, and Argentine exporters find it harder to compete abroad.
- —Still open Whether August and September data confirm a technical recession, and whether the government changes its exchange-rate policy.
Argentina is becoming more expensive in dollar terms, and that is holding back growth, economist Marina Dal Poggetto warned on Saturday. The head of the Buenos Aires consultancy EcoGo said on 3 October that the government keeps the dollar “very pinned” while prices rise.
Her warning, reported by the business site iProfesional, comes days after official data showed activity shrinking 2.9 percent in July. It also lands on the day Brazil, Argentina’s neighbour and key trading partner, votes for president.
What Dal Poggetto Said
Dal Poggetto spoke on Radio Splendid AM 990, a Buenos Aires station, iProfesional and the Mar del Plata daily La Capital reported. “The flip side of having a very pinned dollar” while prices rise “is inflation in dollars”, she said.
“Argentina is getting more expensive in dollars,” she added. Local costs keep rising in pesos while the exchange rate barely moves, so the same goods cost more when counted in dollars.
She said the government seems to be using an “exchange-rate anchor” and is “starting to use the tariff anchor”. That second tool means holding down regulated prices such as electricity, gas and transport to slow inflation.
“The government controls the exchange rate and controls the interest rate,” she said, according to La Capital.
Why a Steady Peso Can Slow Growth
A peso that stays strong while costs rise makes imports cheaper and Argentine goods dearer abroad. “Investment is not growing, consumption is not growing, imports are growing,” Dal Poggetto said.
She said the economy has been flat since February 2025. The sectors still growing, in her view, are energy and mining, finance on the back of credit, and farming.
She added that the investment rate is falling, El Destape reported. Announced projects, she argued, are not yet showing up in the national figures.
What the Official Data Show
INDEC, the national statistics institute, reported on 24 September that activity fell 2.9 percent in July from June, after seasonal adjustment. Chequeado, a fact-checking site, called it the largest monthly drop in six years.
Activity was 1.4 percent lower than in July 2025. Economy Minister Luis Caputo blamed “transitory shocks”, such as gas shortages for industry, bad weather and the football World Cup.
On 28 September the US bank JPMorgan cut its 2026 growth forecast for Argentina to 1.5 percent from 2.7 percent, iProfesional reported. The bank put the economy 4.5 percent below its March peak.
Inflation, meanwhile, keeps easing. Prices rose 1.7 percent in August, the lowest since June 2025, as reported in Argentine Inflation Fell to 1.7% in August.
Over twelve months, prices were up 33.5 percent.
Fewer Dollars for the Central Bank
Dal Poggetto also noted that “the government is buying fewer dollars”. The central bank, known as the BCRA, bought US$473 million in September, its smallest monthly total of 2026, Infobae reported.
That compares with US$768 million in August and US$2.77 billion in April. Purchases this year total about US$14.6 billion, above the official US$10 billion target.
The bank blamed seasonal factors, mainly lower farm export sales. Its reserves stood at US$46.09 billion at the end of September.
The wholesale dollar closed at 1,522 pesos per dollar on Friday 2 October, the financial daily Ámbito reported. The informal “blue” rate closed at 1,560 pesos per dollar, a gap of only about 2.5 percent.
The Case for the Current Policy
The government argues that a stable peso is what broke inflation. Monthly inflation reached 25.5 percent in December 2023, Milei’s first month in office.
The near-disappearance of the gap between official and informal dollars is also new. For years the blue dollar traded at a big premium, as explained in Argentina’s Blue Dollar Nears Official Rate.
Caputo calls the July slump temporary. If August and September rebound, the slowdown may prove a pause rather than a turn.
What Comes Next
INDEC’s next activity figures, for August, will show whether Argentina is heading into a technical recession. That means two quarters of contraction in a row, and the second quarter already shrank 0.6 percent, Chequeado noted.
September inflation data come next, and they will test whether the tariff anchor Dal Poggetto describes keeps prices down. Brazil’s election today adds another variable, because the value of the Brazilian real shapes how pricey Argentina looks to its neighbour.
Her warning is about growth and competitiveness, not a forecast of a sudden devaluation. The small gap between official and parallel rates shows no sign of panic in the currency market.
More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Who is Marina Dal Poggetto?
She is the executive director of EcoGo, an economic consultancy in Buenos Aires. Dal Poggetto is one of the most quoted economists in Argentina on inflation, the exchange rate and growth.
What does it mean that Argentina is getting expensive in dollars?
Prices rise in pesos while the peso-dollar rate stays almost still. So the same coffee, rent or hotel night costs more once converted into dollars, which is the point Dal Poggetto makes.
Is Argentina in recession?
Not officially. Activity fell 2.9 percent in July from June, and the second quarter shrank 0.6 percent. A technical recession is possible if the third quarter also contracts.
What does this mean for visitors?
Visitors should expect higher dollar prices than a few years ago. With the blue rate close to the official one, cards and cash now give similar value.
Sources: iProfesional, 3 October 2026; La Capital (Mar del Plata), 4 October 2026; El Destape, 3 October 2026; Chequeado, 25 September 2026; iProfesional (J.P. Morgan forecast), 30 September 2026; Infobae, 30 September 2026; Ámbito, 2 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
In depth
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.