Colombia Inflation Seen Rising to 6.33% in September, Analysts Say
COLOMBIA · ECONOMY · INFLATION
Key Facts
- —The country Colombia’s central bank aims for 3% inflation, with a tolerance band of 2% to 4%. Prices have risen over 6% a year since June.
- —The background DANE, the national statistics agency, put Colombia inflation at 6.24% for August, up from 6.03% in July and 5.10% for all of 2025.
- —Why now DANE publishes September consumer prices on Wednesday 7 October. Banks and brokers have filed their forecasts in two monthly surveys.
- —What happened Citi’s survey of financial analysts, reported by La República on Monday, puts September inflation at 6.33%. That is a forecast, not the official figure.
- —The numbers Individual forecasts run from 6.23% to 6.43%. Analysts see the year ending at 6.91%, far above the target.
- —What it means for you High inflation keeps loan rates up and feeds next year’s rent rises and the 2027 minimum wage debate.
- —Still open The real number may differ. DANE reported 6.24% for August, and forecasts are not the official figure.
Colombia inflation is expected to have risen to 6.33% in September, according to the median forecast in a survey of financial analysts. The national statistics agency DANE publishes the official figure on Wednesday 7 October.
The estimate comes from Citi’s monthly expectations survey, reported by the business daily La República on Monday 5 October. It would be a second straight rise in the annual rate, after 6.24% in August.
What the Forecasters Expect
The Citi survey’s median of 6.33% would put annual inflation 1.15 points above September 2025, when it stood at 5.18%. The spread between the most and least worried forecasters is narrow.
Bancóldex, the state development bank, and Itaú both expect 6.43%, with the brokerage Acciones & Valores at 6.42%. At the low end, the think tank Anif sees 6.26%, Corficolombiana 6.25% and Banco Agrario 6.23%.
A second poll points the same way. The central bank’s own monthly survey of economists, published on 17 September, also showed a median of 6.33% for September, Valora Analitik reported.
Why Prices Are Expected to Climb
Analysts name education and food as the main drivers this month. Schools on the so-called calendar B, which runs on a different academic year, adjust tuition fees at this time of year.
Carlos Alape of Aval Asset Management also pointed to rents indexed to past inflation and early pressure on energy and gas prices. He linked part of that to El Niño, a weather pattern that brings drier months.
Camilo Pérez, head of economic research at Banco de Bogotá, expects “significant increases in education, as usually happens at this time of year”. He added that some food and service prices could also add pressure in the coming months.
“Meals away from home and education will push inflation up,” said David Cubides, chief economist at Banco de Occidente. Alape expects slightly cheaper petrol and calmer prices for traded goods to offset part of the rise.
Why a Small Monthly Rise Lifts the Annual Rate
Annual inflation compares prices with the same month a year earlier. In September 2025, consumer prices rose 0.32% in the month, according to DANE’s tables.
If September 2026 brings a larger monthly rise, the annual rate climbs. A monthly gain of about 0.40%, the average expected in the central bank’s survey, would produce roughly 6.33%.
The comparison gets tougher in the final quarter. Prices rose only 0.18% in October 2025 and 0.07% in November 2025, DANE’s tables show.
Ordinary monthly increases in the coming months would therefore push Colombia inflation higher still. That base effect helps explain why analysts expect the year to close near 7%.
The Central Bank Has Already Moved
Colombia’s central bank, the Banco de la República, raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 12.25% on Wednesday 30 September. Most economists had expected no change (rate decision).
The bank pointed to food inflation of 6.1%, regulated prices such as utilities at 6.8% and services at 7.2%. Core inflation, which strips out food and regulated prices, reached 6.1%, its highest level in a year, La República reported.
A Seventh Year Above Target
Analysts in the Citi survey expect Colombia inflation to end 2026 at 6.91%. That would be the seventh year in a row above the 3% goal, La República noted.
The central bank’s survey points to a slow decline after that, with a median forecast of 5.06% for December 2027. Even that would still sit above the tolerance band.
What It Means for Residents and Investors
For tenants, the calendar-year figure matters most. Colombian law lets landlords raise residential rent once a year by no more than the previous calendar year’s consumer price inflation.
That cap was 5.10% for rent reviews in 2026, matching 2025 inflation. If the forecasts prove right, the cap for 2027 would be close to 7%.
Borrowers face expensive credit for longer, and savers earn more on peso deposits. Colombia inflation also anchors the coming talks on the 2027 minimum wage (wage talks, 5 October).
What Comes Next
DANE releases the September data on Wednesday 7 October. The central bank’s board meets again on Friday 30 October, and a print near 6.33% would keep pressure on it.
A reading close to the forecast would confirm a slow climb, not a sudden spike. An upside surprise like August’s, when the actual beat the forecast, would reshape expectations for rates and wages.
More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
What is Colombia’s inflation rate now?
The latest official Colombia inflation figure is 6.24% for August 2026, published by DANE on 7 September. The 6.33% for September is an analysts’ forecast.
When will September’s Colombia inflation figure be published?
DANE, the national statistics agency, publishes it on Wednesday 7 October. DANE releases consumer prices at 6 p.m. Bogotá time on the fifth working day of the month.
What is the central bank’s inflation target?
The Banco de la República targets 3% a year, with a tolerance band of 2% to 4%. Colombia inflation has stayed above that band all year.
Why does inflation matter for foreigners in Colombia?
It sets the ceiling for annual rent increases and influences loan rates. It also feeds the yearly negotiation of the minimum wage.
Sources: La República, 5 October 2026; Valora Analitik, 17 September 2026; La República, 4 September 2026; DANE, CPI tables (August 2026), 7 September 2026; Law 820 of 2003, art. 20 (Secretaría del Senado), accessed 5 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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