Peru’s Economy Grew 3.4%. Its President May Not Last

Peru’s statistics agency released GDP data on Sunday showing the economy grew 3.44% in 2025 — the best full-year result since the pandemic and slightly above what the finance ministry and central bank had projected. On Tuesday, Congress will vote on whether to remove the president. In Peru, these two facts no longer feel contradictory. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Peru affairs and Latin American financial news.

The growth was led by construction, which surged 6.67% for the year and 12% in December alone, fueled by private housing developments and public infrastructure at the local government level, where spending rose nearly 20%. Commerce expanded 3.59%, driven by year-end campaigns and strong auto sales. Transport, restaurants, and tourism all posted solid gains. The result slightly missed the finance ministry’s 3.5% target but beat market consensus, and the economy has now expanded for 24 consecutive months.

Mining, however, was the drag. The sector contracted 2.18% in December, hit by lower output of molibdenum (-19.1%), copper (-2.7%), gold (-3.2%), and silver (-2.7%) — a warning for an economy still dependent on extractive industries. Zinc (+17.2%), iron (+14%), and tin (+22.1%) partially offset the decline, but hydrocarbon production also fell on weaker crude oil and natural gas liquid extraction. For the full year, mining’s weakness cost the economy an estimated half percentage point of growth it might otherwise have captured.

Then there is the politics. José Jerí, 39, became president in October after Congress unanimously impeached Dina Boluarte during a crime wave that killed over 2,240 people in 2025. He is the eighth person to hold the presidency since 2018. Now he faces his own censure vote after secret meetings with Chinese businessman Zhihua Yang — dubbed “Chifagate” after the restaurant where they met — triggered fiscal investigations for alleged influence peddling. More than 78 lawmakers have signed the motion. Elections are scheduled for April 12.

The paradox is Peru’s defining feature: an autonomous central bank, disciplined fiscal policy, and the region’s lowest inflation coexist with institutional chaos that would cripple most economies. The BCRP projects 2026 growth at around 3%, Fitch at the same level, and Goldman Sachs has called Peru’s macro framework a regional “crown jewel.” Whether that holds through yet another presidential succession — with elections just eight weeks away — is the question no spreadsheet can answer.

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