Oil Fund Jumps 1.91% as YPF Rises 3.86% | Oil, Oct 12
Key Facts
- The USO oil fund rose 1.91% to US$151.03 on Monday 12 October, tracking US crude futures higher.
- Argentina’s YPF jumped 3.86% to US$51.97, the largest gain among Latin America’s main oil names.
- Ecopetrol rose 1.71% to US$17.23 and Petrobras 0.47% to US$25.42, both traded as ADRs in New York.
- The US dollar index rose 0.35% to 102.57, yet oil still gained.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 75.5% to WTI crude touching US$95 in October and 40.5% to US$100 (US$2.04 million traded, read at 8:43 pm ET on 12 October). Bets, not forecasts.
Today’s Focus
Oil rose on Monday 12 October, and Latin American producers followed. The USO fund, which tracks US crude futures, gained 1.91% to US$151.03.
Argentina’s YPF, the Vaca Muerta shale leader, jumped 3.86% to US$51.97. Colombia’s Ecopetrol rose 1.71% to US$17.23, and Brazil’s Petrobras added 0.47% to US$25.42.
We could not confirm a single daily driver for the oil price. Since early September, US and Iranian strikes on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and an attack on a Saudi Aramco refinery on 7 September, reported by market news services, have kept a risk premium in crude.
What matters today. For US drivers and investors, oil rose again and Latin American producers gained, with Middle East risk still the main backdrop.
01 The session in one read
Oil and oil shares advanced on Monday 12 October. The USO fund gained 1.91%, YPF 3.86%, Ecopetrol 1.71% and Petrobras 0.47%.
Brazil’s B3 was closed for a holiday, so Petrobras traded only as a New York ADR.
Crude and the regional producers rose together, a pattern that reflects supply fear. The variable to watch is whether WTI breaks above US$95.
02 The board
YPF led because it is the most oil-price-sensitive of the group and tied to Argentina’s shale boom. Petrobras lagged, as the Brazilian state still shapes its pricing.
The USO fund holds crude futures, so it is a proxy for the US price rather than a spot quote.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO fund) | US$151.03 | +1.91% |
| YPF | US$51.97 | +3.86% |
| Ecopetrol | US$17.23 | +1.71% |
| Petrobras | US$25.42 | +0.47% |
| US dollar index | 102.57 | +0.35% |
Source: RT close, 2026-10-12. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 209,066.90 | +1.38% | +21.85% | 206,220.24 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,043.36 | +0.17% | — | 11,024.22 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 66,411.11 | +0.55% | +12.17% | 66,048.57 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 2,828,027 | -0.16% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,531.15 | +0.00% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 60,956.11 | -0.51% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
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03 What moved it
We could not confirm a single driver for Monday. Since early September, reports have described US and Iranian strikes on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and an attack on a Saudi Aramco refinery on 7 September, which keep a risk premium in crude.
The dollar index rose 0.35% to 102.57, yet oil still gained, which shows that supply fears outweighed currency effects.
04 The Latin American read
Argentina’s Vaca Muerta, Brazil’s pre-salt fields, Colombia’s Ecopetrol and Guyana’s offshore boom all sell into the same global price. Higher oil helps their exports and tax take.
For US readers, the same rise lifts petrol prices at home, so it matters well beyond the producers.
05 The names to watch
YPF is the clearest US-listed bet on Argentina’s shale. Petrobras is the largest producer in Latin America.
Ecopetrol links Colombia’s budget to the oil price. Its ADR gained 1.71%.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket priced a 75.5% chance that WTI crude touches US$95 in October and 40.5% that it touches US$100, with US$2.04 million traded (read at 8:43 pm ET on 12 October). It gave 74% to a dip to US$90 at some point.
These prices are bets on where oil trades, not forecasts of the average price.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
06 The outlook
Prediction markets see a high chance that WTI touches US$95 in October. Traders will watch for fresh shipping incidents and any change in OPEC+ policy.
We could not confirm the settle of Brent or WTI futures for Monday, so we quote the USO fund only.
07 What to watch
- US$95 on WTI: A close above would confirm the risk premium.
- Shipping incidents: New attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz or on Saudi sites would lift prices.
- OPEC+ policy: Any change in output targets would reset the outlook.
- Tuesday’s B3 reopening: Petrobras’s local shares will adjust to Monday’s ADR move.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil rise on Monday 12 October?
We could not confirm a single driver. The USO crude fund gained 1.91% to US$151.03, and reports since early September describe strikes on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and an attack on a Saudi refinery.
How did Latin American oil shares do?
YPF rose 3.86% to US$51.97, Ecopetrol 1.71% to US$17.23 and Petrobras 0.47% to US$25.42 in New York.
What is the USO fund?
USO is a US fund that holds crude futures. It tracks the US oil price but is not the spot price.
What do prediction markets say about oil?
Polymarket gave 75.5% to WTI touching US$95 in October and 40.5% to US$100, as of 8:43 pm ET on 12 October. These are bets, not forecasts.
Market data: RT; prediction markets: Polymarket (as of 8:43 pm ET, 12 October 2026)
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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