Iron Ore Prices Slip as China Demand Concerns Persist

The SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index traded at $97.20 per metric ton on Monday morning, May 5, 2025. Prices dipped marginally by 0.10% from Friday’s close of $97.56 amid cautious market sentiment before key Chinese economic data releases this week.

Weekend trading showed modest bearish pressure as traders assessed conflicting signals from China’s manufacturing and property sectors. The iron ore market has experienced a period of consolidation characterized by limited price volatility and balanced supply-demand dynamics.

Iron ore has retreated 5.23% since January despite major miners maintaining disciplined output throughout 2025. Australian Pilbara shipments remain steady at 16.5 million tons weekly while Brazilian exports continue at rates consistent with first-quarter averages.

Chinese steel mills have shifted strategies from aggressive restocking to just-in-time purchasing in recent weeks. Mill inventories now average 28 days of consumption, down significantly from 35 days recorded in early March.

Blast furnace utilization rates have stabilized at 82.3%, sufficient for maintaining current production but inadequate for driving aggressive raw material accumulation. This operational equilibrium contributes to the market’s current price stability.

Regional disparities characterize China’s physical iron ore markets. Eastern provinces report tightening inventories due to infrastructure projects while southern regions face oversupply from concentrated seaborne arrivals.

Iron Ore Faces Demand Pressures and Tariff Uncertaint

Technical indicators present mixed signals for iron ore futures. Key support rests at $95.40, with a potential breakthrough opening a path toward $89.30. RSI trends lower but has not yet reached oversold territory.

Forecasts for iron ore vary considerably. Trading Economics projects $96.22 per ton by quarter-end while UBS maintains a more optimistic $100 average target for 2025. Government sources suggest long-term pressure with prices potentially averaging $80 per ton.

China’s property sector contraction continues to weigh on iron ore demand. Real estate investment declined 10.1% year-on-year during 2024’s first nine months while new construction starts contracted by 22.2%.

Market participants now focus on President Trump’s tariff impacts on global steel trade flows. China exported over 10 million tons of steel in March, but future shipments face uncertainty from increased tariffs.

Port stockpile trajectories remain critical indicators for price direction. Combined inventories at Chinese ports stand at 138 million metric tons, with the 135 million ton threshold watched carefully as a potential trigger for panic buying.

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