Iron Ore Holds Above $100 As China Restocks And Big Miners Spar

Benchmark iron ore with 62% Fe content delivered to China is trading around $104.6 a tonne this morning, a fraction higher on the day and still comfortably above the psychologically crucial $100 mark.

The move caps a remarkably calm week in which Singapore’s main futures contract has shuffled between roughly $103.8 and $104.9, with a brief mid-week pop on stimulus hopes followed by a mild fade as Chinese steel margins weakened again.

Overnight trading added only a few cents, while Dalian futures hovered near 790 yuan, reinforcing the message of tight but orderly conditions.

Spot indices into Qingdao sit slightly above the futures curve, close to $106, and all the major benchmarks are now clustered in the mid-$100s.

That firmness is striking because Chinese steel output is on track to fall below one billion tonnes this year even as iron ore imports head for another record.

Port inventories have rebuilt from recent lows to around 140 million tonnes, still below last year’s level, suggesting mills are quietly restocking despite noisier debate about overcapacity and industrial policy.

Supply Standoff Lifts Prices

Supply tensions are amplifying that support. A stand-off between China’s new state-backed buyer CMRG and BHP over 2026 contracts has frozen Jimblebar Blend Fines and pushed mills toward Rio Tinto’s Pilbara Blend, draining PBF stocks by about 40% and prompting traders to talk of a “man-made bull market.”

At the same time, Vale is steering production toward the upper half of its 325–350 million-tonne range, and Guinea’s Simandou project has already stockpiled high-grade ore ahead of shipments that could reach 120 million tonnes a year by 2028 — a looming medium-term check on prices.

Investor participation remains secondary. Most portfolio money reaches the sector through broad mining ETFs, where iron ore competes with copper, gold and uranium stories, and flows this month have not driven price action.

Technically, the market looks like a coiled range trade. On the four-hour chart, prices sit near the upper Bollinger band with an RSI around 60 but a fading MACD, signalling modest, tired bullishness.

Daily candles hold just above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, with RSI near 51, while the weekly trend has inched higher since July but still respects heavy resistance around $112–113.

Bulls need a clean break above $105–106 to aim for that ceiling; a decisive drop through $100 would confirm that sober fundamentals, not political hopes, are finally back in charge.

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