Global Economy Briefing: December 4, 2025

A data-dense Thursday reinforced “services steady, goods mixed” with a firmer U.S. labor pulse and softer construction in Europe.

Disinflation stayed friendly, bills cheapened, and OPEC output shifts were small. Brazil slowed but kept its external groove; Japan’s households pulled back; India cut rates.

United States

Claims surprised stronger: initial 191k; continuing 1.939m; the 4-week average fell. Factory orders rose 0.2% m/m, with ex-transport also 0.2%.

Natural gas drew 12B (lighter than expected). T-bill yields fell (4- and 8-week to 3.68% and 3.62%). Fed balance sheet dipped to $6.536T; reserves to $2.878T.

Read: labor resilience and easing front-end funding support a “hold” Fed with a soft-landing bias.

Europe and UK

Construction PMIs improved off lows in Germany (45.2) and France (43.6) but stayed weak; Italy slipped to 48.2.

Euro retail volumes were flat m/m, up 1.5% y/y. French OATs cleared at 3.38%; Spain’s 5-year at 2.471%.

Switzerland’s PMI rose to 49.7; unemployment steady at 3.0% s.a. UK car registrations fell 1.6% y/y and construction PMI slumped to 39.4.

Takeaway: credit is available, but building is still a drag; Europe edges forward via services, not capex.

Latin America

Brazil GDP grew 0.1% q/q and 1.8% y/y; November trade surplus printed $5.84B.

Signal: growth cooled into Q4, but the external engine still hums—room for steady policy if disinflation holds.

Africa

South Africa’s current-account gap narrowed to R-57.0B (-0.7% of GDP) from R-72.2B (-1.0%). That eases external pressure even as growth stays uneven.

Asia-Pacific

Japan’s household spending tumbled (-3.5% m/m; -3.0% y/y) despite stable reserves ($1.36T). Korea’s current account shrank to $6.81B, still solid.

India cut the policy rate to 5.25% and held CRR at 4.00% and reverse repo at 3.35%—a tilt to support growth after recent cooling.

Read: Asia stays the ballast, but Japanese consumption is a worry; India adds policy cushion.

Energy

OPEC tweaks were marginal: Saudi ~9.95M b/d; Iraq 4.02M; Iran 3.34M; Nigeria 1.48M; UAE 3.37M.

U.S. petroleum stocks rose again, with gasoline and distillates building as refinery runs climbed. Price pressure from energy looks contained near term.

Canada

Ivey PMI slid to 48.4 (n.s.a. 44.5), pointing to softer domestic demand. The Bank of Canada can stay patient as growth cools and shelter risks linger.

What it means

Macro risk skewed benign: strong U.S. claims, flat euro retail, falling bills, and tame energy argue for “hold and assess.” Europe grows without building; the UK looks fragile.

Brazil’s external cushion holds; South Africa’s gap narrowed; Japan’s demand hiccup bears watching; India just added stimulus.

Positioning: keep a quality-duration bias, favor services and balance-sheet strength, be selective in European cyclicals, and prefer EMs with improving external balances (Brazil, Korea) over consumption-soft spots (Japan) until data turn.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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