Dollar Tests Fresh Lows As Peso Strength Deepens, While Mexico’s IPC Stays Near Records

Key Points

• USD/MXN traded near 17.18 after dipping to 17.097, stretching the peso’s winning streak.
• Momentum is extreme, with daily RSI near 19 and weekly RSI near 24, raising bounce risk.
• Mexico’s IPC held near 68,878, with RSI above 70 on daily and weekly charts, signaling a crowded rally.

The peso extended its run on Wednesday as USD/MXN hovered around 17.18 in early trade, after falling to 17.097 at the session low.

The move kept attention on a familiar split: the dollar is struggling to recover, while Mexico keeps drawing capital that prefers order and clarity. Investors continue to reward Mexico’s orthodox policy signals and cautious central-bank messaging.

That mix supports carry demand and reduces fears of sudden, arbitrary rule changes. Markets remain less forgiving when governments flirt with quick fixes that distort prices or weaken institutions.

Technicals show why traders are cautious even as the trend favors the peso. On the daily chart, USD/MXN is deeply oversold, with RSI around 18.97.

Weekly RSI sits near 24.10, a sign the move has become unusually one-sided. The four-hour RSI near 27.32 hints at stabilization, but not a clear reversal.

Key levels are tight. Support sits near 17.18 and 17.13, with 17.10 as the next reference. Resistance begins around 17.23–17.27, then 17.29, where rebounds have recently stalled.

Mexico’s stock market kept pushing higher. The S&P/BMV IPC traded near 68,824 on the four-hour view and around 68,878 on the daily view, keeping the uptrend intact.

But the index is also stretched, with RSI near 72 on both daily and weekly charts. That usually reflects strength, yet it also raises the odds of sharp pullbacks.

Top Winners

• Peso carry trades and MXN funding strategies.
• Mexico importers and firms with dollar costs.
• Domestic-demand shares in a strong tape.
• Banks if rate cuts stay gradual.
• Disciplined dip buyers in the IPC.

Top Losers

• Leveraged dollar longs and late short-covering.
• Exporters hurt by translation effects.
• High-beta stocks if momentum snaps.
• Late equity chasers at overbought readings.
• Policy-risk trades tied to intervention rumors.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Mexican markets and Latin American financial news.

For regional context, see the Brazil’s Ibovespa report: Brazil’s Ibovespa.

For regional context, see the Argentina’s Merval report: Argentina’s Merval.