Ibovespa Reclaims Record Trail Ahead Of “Super Wednesday” As Inflation Cools And Foreign Cash Returns

Key Points

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• The Ibovespa jumped 1.79% to a new record close at 181,919.13, after briefly topping 183,000 intraday.

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• A softer IPCA-15 and a sharp drop in the dollar revived the foreign-flow story into Brazil.

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• Charts still point higher, but momentum is extreme and pullbacks can be violent.

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\n\\nBrazil’s stock market restarted its record run on Tuesday, Jan 27, after Monday’s pause. The Ibovespa rose 1.79% to 181,919.13 and set a fresh intraday record above 183,000.\n\\n\n\\nThe dollar fell 1.38% to 5.2067 reais per $1 (about $0.19 per real), its lowest level since late May 2024. Traders framed the move as a mix of foreign buying and a domestic inflation surprise, with rate decisions in Brazil and the United States looming the next day.\n\\n\n\\nThe IPCA-15 inflation preview rose 0.20% in January, below the 0.23% consensus. The 12-month reading came in at 4.50%, also a touch under expectations.\n\\n\n\\n

\n\\n\n\\nThat small miss mattered because this rally has been trading like a confidence vote on future Brazilian rates. A weaker dollar and calmer inflation keep that narrative alive, even with politics adding noise.\n\\n\n\\nBlue chips did the heavy lifting. Vale rebounded almost 3% ahead of its fourth-quarter operational update. Petrobras extended its winning streak to eight sessions as Brent climbed 2.81% to $66.59.\n\\n\n\\nWith banks, Vale, and Petrobras making up about half of the index, a coordinated move in the “big three” still sets the tone.\n\\n\n\\nTrading remained intense. Reported turnover was about R$35.3 billion ($6.78 billion), consistent with a market being re-priced by flows rather than incremental local news.\n\\n

Top winners (Jan 27)

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• Raízen (RAIZ4) +8.43%, helped by renewed talk around a restructured capital plan.

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• CSN (CSNA3) +7.13%, extending the steel rebound.

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• Yduqs (YDUQ3) +6.96%, after a broker upgrade and higher target price.

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• Cyrela (CYRE3) +6.17%, as rate-sensitive cyclicals led.

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• Assaí (ASAI3) +5.47%, in the consumer beta trade.

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Top losers (Jan 27)

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• Eneva (ENEV3) -2.72%, after the company approved a new debenture issuance.

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• Auren (AURE3) -2.71%, as power names lagged the risk chase.

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• Vivara (VIVA3) -1.88%, a pullback after recent gains.

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• Totvs (TOTS3) -1.52%, with software underperforming the rotation.

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• Ambev (ABEV3) -1.20%, as defensives trailed.

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Chart read

\n\\nThe trend is still up, but it is stretched. Daily RSI is about 84 and weekly RSI about 83. 4H RSI is near 80. MACD remains strongly positive across timeframes, but that strength now signals late-cycle momentum.\n\\n\n\\nKey support sits near 179,850, then 173,467. If those break, the same speed that lifted the index can work in reverse.\n

For broader market context, see Brazil’s Morning Call for this date. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Brazilian stock market and Latin American financial markets.