Regime change in Russia has been an objective for some US officials since the 2014 Maidan coup, and President Biden reiterated this stance after the invasion of Ukraine.
The recent Wagner Group mutiny has sparked speculation about Putin’s potential removal, but the political landscape in Russia has shifted towards ultra-nationalism, which poses strategic risks, including a higher likelihood of tactical nuclear weapon use.
Since the Maidan events, Russia has been moving towards a more aggressive form of nationalism, viewed by American officials as a precursor to overthrowing Putin.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader, represents a growing consensus among the Russian armed forces and civil society that Putin has been weak against Western threats.
Prigozhin’s mutiny highlighted Putin’s dependence on Russia’s extreme right.
If Putin were overthrown, his successor would not be a liberal democrat but a Russian nationalist with a strong focus on achieving victory in Ukraine, potentially using tactical nuclear weapons.
Russia’s ruling elite fosters a powerful group of right-wing nationalists, united by their desire for a revived “Great Russia.”
The potential use of Russia’s 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons, starting at 1 kiloton, is not just media speculation.
Prominent voices within the nationalist movement, like Alexander Dugin, advocate for their deployment.
Dugin, a self-proclaimed “red Nazi,” called for mobilization, militarization of the economy, internment of war opponents, and the use of tactical nuclear weapons if other measures fail.
Russia’s conflict with Ukraine is seen as a battle between the Russian Federation and NATO. Russia believes that the Western objective is regime change and potentially the fragmentation of the Russian Federation.
The recent mutiny and its resolution will likely lead Putin to increase the mobilization of Russian manpower.
There is currently no significant democratic opposition waiting to replace the Russian regime.
Attempts to establish opposition, such as Alexei Navalny, have been suppressed by the security services, leading to emigration or imprisonment.
Putin’s response to the mutiny may involve augmenting the mobilization of Russian manpower, aligning with some elements of Dugin’s program.
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