Conab Increases Brazil’s Corn Export Projections for 2023/24

Brazil’s corn harvest for the 2023/24 season is projected to hit 114.14 million tons.

This is 2.5 million tons higher than last month’s estimate by the National Supply Company (Conab).

This increase stems mainly from the second corn harvest, now expected at 88.12 million tons.

The previous forecast estimated it at 86.15 million tons. As a result, export expectations rose by 2.5 million tons to 33.5 million tons.

With the second harvest underway, Conab revised productivity expectations upward by 1.2% and the planted area by 1%.

Mato Grosso’s initial performance looks promising, with most crops planted within the ideal period. However, Paraná faces potential losses due to a water deficit.

Brazil’s overall corn harvest will drop by 13.5% compared to the previous season. Exports will decline by more than 20 million tons from the previous cycle’s record levels.

This anticipated drop underscores the volatile nature of agricultural production and its susceptibility to climatic conditions.

For soybeans, the nearly completed harvest led Conab to adjust the 2023/24 forecast to 147.35 million tons.

This figure is slightly down from the previous estimate of 147.68 million tons. This represents a 4.7% decrease from the historic high of 154.6 million tons last season.

Export forecasts have also been slightly reduced to 92.4 million tons, down from 92.5 million tons in May.

This is significantly lower than the record 101.86 million tons in the previous cycle.

Conab Increases Brazil’s Corn Export Projections for 2023/24

Authorities now estimate Brazil’s total production of grains and oilseeds for 2023/24 at 297.54 million tons.

This figure is slightly above the previous estimate of 295.45 million tons.

However, it still marks a 7% annual decrease due to adverse climatic conditions affecting key production regions.

Brazil is the third-largest producer and the second-largest exporter of corn globally. Its agricultural output impacts global markets, influencing prices and availability.

The adjustments in Brazil’s corn and soybean forecasts highlight the dynamic nature of agricultural production.

They also underscore broader implications for food security and trade.

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