Colombia Power Demand Jumps 6.49% as Savings Plan Charges Excess Use
Colombia’s power system entered September on a war footing. The new Colombia power demand report from grid operator XM showed electricity consumption grew 6.49 percent in July compared with the same month last year, just as the regulator activated a mandatory energy-savings program that will charge households and businesses for excessive use — the strongest sign yet that the government fears blackouts as El Niño intensifies.
The national surge lifted consumption to 7,701.41 gigawatt-hours in July. On July 30, the country set an all-time record for daily consumption at 262.67 GWh. The Caribbean region led demand with 2,278.12 GWh, followed by the center of the country with 1,763.10 GWh and Antioquia with 1,049.57 GWh, while the department of Guaviare posted the fastest percentage growth at 21.39 percent.
Households Drive the Surge
The regulated market — homes and small businesses — pushed demand up 8.06 percent, while the non-regulated segment of large industries and retailers grew a modest 2.2 percent. Agriculture and fishing expanded their consumption by a notable 8.63 percent. The pattern mirrors May, when extreme heat drove demand up 8.75 percent to what was then a historic high.
With demand at records and the dry season ahead, the Energy and Gas Regulation Commission (CREG) confirmed that its transitory savings program took effect on September 1. The scheme does not raise tariffs; instead, every residential and small-business user receives an individual consumption target calculated from their last twelve months of bills.
How the Savings Plan Will Charge Excess Use
Only consumption that exceeds the target by more than 10 percent will face an extra charge, applied exclusively to the kilowatt-hours above that threshold. The levy is progressive: 30 percent for lower-income strata 1 to 3, 50 percent for strata 4 to 6, and 70 percent for commercial and industrial users. A household with a 100 kWh target consuming 115 kWh, for example, pays the surcharge only on 5 kWh.
Users who cut consumption by more than 10 percent below their target will earn a credit on their bill at the end of the six-month program — though the CREG cautioned that this benefit is not guaranteed upfront, since it depends on the resources actually collected in each market. The first bill issued after September 1 will be “pedagogical”: excess consumption in that cycle will not be charged, though savings will already be counted. Money collected stays within each commercialization market to reward savers; it does not go to the utilities.
“International forecasts estimate up to an 81 percent probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity between October and December 2026, with lower water inflows to the reservoirs just as energy demand hits historic highs,” said CREG executive director Adriana María Jiménez. “Acting now is the best way to protect our water reserves.”
Only the East Met the Reservoir Target
The reservoir numbers explain the urgency. As of August 17, the aggregated fill level of the interconnected system’s dams stood at 79.99 percent — below both the 80 percent target set by XM and the 82.5 percent reference used by the CREG to face El Niño. Thirteen of the country’s 24 reservoirs were below the 80 percent line, and only the eastern region beat the target, with reserves at 94.19 percent and water inflows at 90.03 percent of its historical average.
The weakest points are in Antioquia and the center: Porce III held just 36.27 percent of its useful volume, Porce II 37.19 percent, Punchiná 42.74 percent, Prado 49.56 percent and Urrá 1 52.84 percent. XM has warned that in a deficit-hydrology scenario, the aggregated level could plunge to 13.4 percent by December, forcing the system to lean heavily on thermal generation. The drought is already biting on the water side: Medellín began rationing drinking water in late August, as The Rio Times reported.
Gas: A 2032 Deadline for Energy Autonomy
Behind the short-term emergency sits a longer fuse. Colombia has until 2032 — a window of barely three years of effective decision-making — to save its energy autonomy, warned Luz Stella Murgas, president of the natural-gas association Naturgas, presenting a study by the Regional Center for Energy Studies and RGL Consultor.
The country’s proven reserves cover just 7.4 years of oil and 5.9 years of gas at current production rates. “The definitive breaking point is between 2029 and 2032, because current proven reserves reach their limit toward 2035 in any of the scenarios we modeled,” Murgas said. “That will force us to import close to 65 percent of our gas in 2035 and more than 90 percent of our oil by 2045.”
The diagnosis is stark: oil production has fallen 27.3 percent since 2015, gas output 31.8 percent, and exploratory drilling dropped 65.6 percent over the last decade. No new exploration and production contract has been signed since August 2022, and blockades against oil operations hit a ten-year peak of 1,942 cases in 2024. The study estimates the sector’s fiscal contribution through 2050 could differ by COP$533 trillion (about US$166 billion) between a reactivation scenario and continued decline — figures we detailed in our coverage of Colombia’s fiscal outlook.
President Abelardo de la Espriella, who took office on August 7, has promised to reopen E&P contracting and allow unconventional development, calling energy sovereignty a pillar of his program. With reservoirs below target, demand at records and the gas clock ticking toward 2032, his government now owns all three problems at once.
Exchange-rate basis for the peso figure in this article: 3,213.97 Colombian pesos per US dollar, the official market rate (TRM) for September 1, 2026.
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