Chile’s Post-Election Market Rally Cools As Global Risk-Off Returns

Chile’s markets woke up calmer on Wednesday morning. The peso is trading around 932–933 per dollar, almost unchanged from Tuesday’s close but still stronger than late last week, when investors were demanding close to 940–950 pesos.

The move reflects a classic tug of war: domestic optimism after a strong showing by pro-market candidates on Sunday, and a fresh wave of global risk aversion that is lifting the dollar index back toward the 100 mark.

On the macro side, Chile looks comparatively solid. Inflation has slipped back into the central bank’s 3% target band, and the policy rate at 4.75% is now mildly restrictive rather than punitive.

Officials describe holding that level as the “only plausible option” for now, while hinting at gradual cuts if the economy softens further. Copper trades near $5 per pound, keeping the country’s terms of trade comfortable even as prices have eased from recent peaks.

Politics, for once, are market-friendly. The first round left right-leaning José Antonio Kast as clear favourite for the December runoff and delivered a more conservative-tilting Congress.

Local and foreign managers argue that such a configuration improves the chances of tax, pension and capital-market reforms and a more predictable climate for mining and retail.

The result: on Monday the S&P IPSA jumped 3.1% to a record 9,904 points, led by SQM-B (+11.3%), Ripley (+9.1%), Falabella (+4.6%) and Salfacorp (+4.0%).

By Tuesday, however, Chile could not ignore the outside world. Ahead of crucial Nvidia earnings and new U.S. jobs data, Wall Street logged a fourth straight decline and Asian and European stocks fell in sympathy.

IPSA retreats as peso steadies

The IPSA slipped 1.0% to 9,809, giving back its record. Top gainers were SM SAAM (+3.1%), Naturgy Gas Chile (+2.4%), Banco de Crédito e Inversiones (+1.2%), Latam Airlines (+0.7%) and Ingevec (+0.4%).

The sharpest losers were Ripley (-6.1%), Falabella (-5.1%), Entel (-3.0%), Las Condes (-2.7%) and Salfacorp (-2.6%).

Technically, USD/CLP still trends lower on the daily chart, with the pair below key moving averages and the peso in control despite a short-term bounce on four-hour candles.

The IPSA’s 4-hour chart shows a powerful uptrend pausing rather than breaking: momentum remains positive, with support around 9,650–9,700 and room for new highs if global nerves subside and Chile’s pro-reform story holds.

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