Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for October 15, 2024
Today’s economic agenda features two key events that could significantly impact Brazil’s financial markets and economic outlook.
At 12:00 AM, Brazil will release its Formal Job Creation data for September, providing crucial insights into the country’s employment situation and overall economic health.
Internationally, the United States will publish the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 9:30 AM and the Monthly Budget at 3:00 PM, which could influence global markets and investor sentiment.
In the Eurozone, the ZEW Survey (Expectations) for October will be released at 6:00 AM, offering a glimpse into economic sentiment in the region.
Economic Agenda, Tuesday, October 15
Brazil
- 12:00 AM – Formal Job Creation (Sep)
United States
- 9:30 AM – Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug)
- 3:00 PM – Monthly Budget (Sep)
Eurozone
- 6:00 AM – ZEW Survey (Expectations) (Oct)
Brazilian Markets Yesterday
The Brazilian stock market, represented by the Ibovespa index, experienced a significant upturn on Monday, October 14, 2024. The index closed with a 0.78% gain, reaching 131,005.25 points.
This marked the largest advance since September 26, when it rose by 1.08%. Several factors contributed to the positive market sentiment. The IBC-Br index, a preview of Brazil’s GDP, surprised analysts by rising 0.23% in August when stability was expected.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad hinted at a potential upward revision of the country’s GDP forecast for the year.
Gabriel Galípolo, the future Central Bank president, compared GDP forecast revisions to GPS recalculations, suggesting that the economy’s growth was causing some expectation misalignments.
The financial sector performed particularly well, with Banco do Brasil shares rising by 0.72%, Santander by 1.15%, Bradesco by 1.49%, and Itaú Unibanco by 0.64%.
Currency Market
The Brazilian real strengthened against the US dollar on Monday. The dollar closed at R$5.582 for both buying and selling, marking a 0.59% decrease. This drop occurred despite the dollar’s rise against most other emerging currencies globally.
The tide turned in the afternoon when news broke about potential government spending cuts. The Brazilian government reportedly plans to introduce measures to curb mandatory spending after the municipal elections.
Commodities Update
The price of gold fell on Monday, with December gold futures closing at $2,665.6 per troy ounce, marking a 0.40% decrease. This drop erased the gains made in the previous week. The decline was attributed to a stronger dollar and disappointment over China’s economic stimulus plans.
Iron ore prices saw a positive shift, with January iron ore futures on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange rising by 1.97% to 800.5 yuan (R$631.59 / $112.78) per ton. This increase came as Beijing hinted at an economic boost, raising hopes for increased demand.
Oil prices dipped slightly, with Brent crude futures falling 0.2% to $90.71 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0.3% to $87.45. The decline was attributed to China’s stimulus plans falling short of expectations and ongoing demand concerns.
Corporate News
LATAM Airlines Group reported impressive growth in September 2024, transporting 6.76 million passengers, an 8% increase from the previous year. The Brazilian domestic market showed robust performance, with passenger traffic increasing by 10.5% and flight capacity growing by 9%.
Petrobras is set to revise its investment plans for 2025, likely reducing its projected investments of $21 billion for next year. This adjustment marks the third consecutive year Petrobras has fallen short of its annual projections.
Assaí, a major player in Brazil’s cash and carry retail market, saw its stock price surge after the Brazilian Federal Revenue Service accepted its appeal, leading to the cancellation of a R$1.3 billion ($232 million) asset freeze.
Lavvi Incorporadora e Construtora, a leading Brazilian real estate firm, has reported exceptional sales figures for the third quarter of 2024.The company’s total sales reached R$ 760.4 million ($135.8 million), marking a stunning 171% increase from the same period in 2023.
Sequoia Logistics (SEQL3), a Brazilian transportation and logistics company, is taking decisive action to address its financial challenges by unveiling an extrajudicial recovery plan.
Magazine Luiza and AliExpress have launched a groundbreaking partnership in Brazil’s e-commerce market. The collaboration, which began on October 13, 2024, marks AliExpress’s first strategic alliance outside of China.
Economic Outlook
The Focus Report, released by the Central Bank of Brazil, showed a slight uptick in Brazil’s 2024 inflation and growth forecasts. Economists raised their expectations for the IPCA inflation index to 3.88% for 2024, up from 3.86% the previous week. The GDP growth forecast for 2024 was also increased to 1.52% from 1.50%.
OPEC’s latest monthly report presented an optimistic outlook for Brazil’s oil production and economic growth. The organization projected Brazil’s oil production to reach 3.84 million barrels per day in 2024, a 7.5% increase from 2023.
Underlying Sentiment
The Brazilian financial market has shown resilience and optimism, driven by positive economic signals and government statements. However, challenges remain, particularly in the form of global economic uncertainties and domestic fiscal concerns. Investors will be closely watching upcoming economic data and government actions for further guidance on Brazil’s economic trajectory.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.46%
176,723.62
-0.46%
66,247.47
-1.56%
10,916.70
-0.84%
3,319,522
-1.78%
2,283.28
-0.60%
57,575.02
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,723.62 | -0.46% | +30.55% | 177,547.57 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.08 | -0.16% | -7.99% | 5.08 | 5.09 | 5.07 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | +0.02% | -10.96% | 5.78 | 5.80 | 5.78 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 99.12 | -1.56% | +43.28% | 100.69 | 101.16 | 98.66 | 4,356 |
| WTI | 90.70 | -1.62% | +37.36% | 92.19 | 92.83 | 90.30 | 38,686 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.24% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,049 | +0.05% | +20.10% | 4,047 | 4,054 | 4,024 | 26,352 |
| SILVER | 58.47 | +1.15% | +49.83% | 57.80 | 58.49 | 57.36 | 5,927 |
| LITHIUM | 69.02 | +0.03% | +55.17% | 69.00 | 69.68 | 68.65 | 135,477 |
| SOY | 1,253 | +1.23% | +24.74% | 1,238 | 1,255 | 1,240 | 16,252 |
| CORN | 490.00 | +5.60% | +21.97% | 464.00 | 490.75 | 486.00 | 19,799 |
| WHEAT | 703.25 | +1.01% | +29.87% | 696.25 | 706.50 | 694.75 | 6,105 |
| COFFEE | 310.75 | -1.86% | +1.94% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 308.25 | — |
| SUGAR | 14.68 | -0.41% | -11.41% | 14.74 | 14.90 | 14.65 | — |
| ORANGE JUICE | 145.50 | -3.19% | -57.07% | 150.30 | 148.80 | 144.00 | — |
| COTTON | 81.53 | +2.08% | +21.07% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 15,710 |
| BEEF | 221.48 | -0.77% | -1.92% | 223.20 | 221.90 | 217.38 | 19,933 |
| CATTLE | 340.13 | -0.31% | +3.41% | 341.17 | 340.50 | 333.00 | 9,414 |
| COCOA | 5,367 | +0.73% | -33.94% | 5,328 | 5,411 | 5,165 | — |
| PETR4 | 42.95 | +0.87% | +34.26% | 42.58 | 43.49 | 42.86 | 25,169,000 |
| VALE3 | 75.68 | +0.77% | +31.80% | 75.10 | 77.07 | 74.51 | 15,786,300 |
| SUZB3 | 42.43 | -0.54% | -18.01% | 42.66 | 42.43 | — | — |
| KLABIN | 17.66 | -1.51% | -4.57% | 17.93 | 17.66 | — | — |
| SLCE3 | 13.77 | -1.36% | -14.13% | 13.96 | 14.06 | 13.69 | 2,340,100 |
| ABEV3 | 15.92 | -1.30% | +17.14% | 16.13 | 16.11 | 15.84 | 18,905,100 |
| ITUB4 | 42.56 | -0.79% | +23.87% | 42.90 | 42.87 | 42.27 | 22,565,100 |
| BBDC4 | 18.72 | -1.32% | +17.88% | 18.97 | 18.72 | — | — |
| BBAS3 | 20.93 | -0.76% | +3.56% | 21.09 | 21.08 | 20.78 | 18,427,800 |
| B3SA3 | 15.65 | -1.57% | +16.88% | 15.90 | 15.82 | 15.48 | 41,084,700 |
| WEGE3 | 45.67 | -2.29% | +20.15% | 46.74 | 45.67 | — | — |
| PRIO3 | 60.54 | +1.29% | +42.55% | 59.77 | 61.35 | 60.54 | 6,347,300 |
| RENT3 | 37.14 | +0.00% | +2.51% | 37.14 | 37.14 | — | — |
| AZZA3 | 17.05 | -4.27% | -54.07% | 17.81 | 17.71 | 17.03 | 2,368,800 |
| CSNA3 | 5.30 | +4.74% | -39.57% | 5.06 | — | — | — |
| GGBR4 | 24.06 | +2.43% | +39.72% | 23.49 | — | — | — |
| ENEV3 | 25.70 | +1.10% | +83.70% | 25.42 | — | — | — |
| LREN3 | 13.37 | -1.26% | -24.16% | 13.54 | 13.37 | — | — |
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