Brazil’s 2026 Budget Targets Paper Surplus, Reveals Underlying Gap

According to Brazil’s Ministry of Planning and Budget and the Presidency, the government sent the 2026 budget to Congress.

The submission projects a small primary surplus while acknowledging items outside the target that leave a residual gap.

The plan totals R$ 6.5 trillion ($1.18 trillion), including R$ 6.3 trillion ($1.15 trillion) for fiscal and social security budgets and R$ 197.8 billion ($36 billion) for state-owned firms’ investments. The government assumes 2.44% GDP growth in 2026.

Officials cap primary spending at R$ 2.428 trillion ($441 billion) under the fiscal framework. The proposal sets a primary surplus goal of R$ 34.3 billion ($6 billion), equal to 0.25% of GDP.

The fiscal rule allows a tolerance band of plus or minus 0.25 percentage point of GDP for the primary result. That band means a result near balance can still meet the target.

However, the budget slides show an effective primary deficit of R$ 23.3 billion ($4 billion) when counting expenses excluded from the target. The same slides reconcile this to a surplus for legal-target purposes.

The minimum wage rises to R$ 1,631 ($297) using the indexation formula in force. That change lifts linked benefits and program baselines.

Mandatory spending remains heavy. Pensions reach R$ 1.1109 trillion ($202 billion) and payroll totals R$ 427.2 billion ($78 billion).

Brazil’s 2026 Budget Targets Paper Surplus, Reveals Underlying Gap

The budget earmarks R$ 130.6 billion ($24 billion) for BPC and R$ 97.7 billion ($18 billion) for unemployment insurance and wage bonus.

Social programs absorb large resources. Bolsa Família receives R$ 158.6 billion ($29 billion) to serve 19.9 million families.

The plan sets R$ 5.1 billion ($1 billion) for Auxílio Gás and R$ 12.0 billion ($2 billion) for the Pé-de-Meia student incentive.

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Health and education meet constitutional floors of R$ 245.5 billion ($45 billion) and R$ 133.7 billion ($24 billion), respectively. The proposal reserves R$ 83.0 billion ($15 billion) for public investments.

The slides separate R$ 52.9 billion ($10 billion) for Novo PAC inside the primary budget and note R$ 88.5 billion ($16 billion) in Novo PAC investments by state-owned firms. Total SOE investments reach R$ 197.8 billion ($36 billion).

Lawmakers’ mandatory amendments total R$ 40.8 billion ($7 billion), with R$ 1.0 billion ($182 million) mapped to the election fund from bancada allocations. These items shape final appropriations during congressional review.

The story behind the figures is simple. The government signals discipline under the rule while showing the underlying arithmetic remains tight.

The cap and indexation push resources to mandatory lines, which limits space for discretionary projects.

Yet the plan outlines a concrete works pipeline through Novo PAC and SOE capex. That pipeline matters for contractors, suppliers, and regional logistics. It also informs credit markets watching spending limits and primary results.