Brazil to compete with the USA for soybean supplies to China in December

Brazil to compete with the USA for soybean supplies to China in December. As the drought continues to threaten crops in the US, Chinese soybean imports from the US have recorded a significant year-on-year decline.

According to BRS Dry Bulk, China, the largest global soybean importer, is increasing imports from Brazil due to lower prices and an anticipated record production level.

Customs data indicates a 32.4% yearly increase in China’s July soybean imports from Brazil, while US imports dropped 62% to 142,129 tonnes.

Despite this, combined volumes since 2023’s start have surpassed 2023 figures, with a 12.2% and 13.9% increase in Brazil and US imports, respectively, from January to July.

Santos, Brazil’s main grain export port, is expected to face congestion due to record soybean and strong corn harvests overwhelming terminal operations.

Although Brazil’s actions might disrupt US grain exports and regional operations, the anticipated congestion and supply chain disruptions in Santos might lead to increased US corn exports.

This foreseen capacity competition at year-end, when China usually exclusively imports from the US, could hopefully boost Panamax rates, particularly for fronthaul transports.

Brazil is also reportedly offering December shipments, a move seen as unprecedented by some Chinese buyers, and initiating direct price competition with the US by pricing December shipments according to US Gulf shipping rates.

This move is expected to affect the market, but the anticipated severe congestion in Santos might open doors for more US corn exports, leading to an end-of-year capacity competition that could hopefully boost Panamax rates for fronthaul transports.