Published Monday, 19 October, 6:30 p.m. ET · Source: B3, the São Paulo stock exchange
Key Facts
—The number. The Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, closed down 0.17% at 205,079.25 points on Monday, 19 October, after a session range of 204,268.99 to 207,387.56.
—What changed. Petrobras preferred shares fell 2.82%, while Azzas 2154 rose 13.25% to R$26.50 (about US$5.25) and MRV rose 10.94% to R$8.01 (about US$1.59).
—The real. Brazil’s commercial dollar closed at R$5.048, down 0.49%, which means each US$1 bought about 0.5% fewer reais than on Friday.
—Market expectation. Economists in the central bank’s weekly Focus survey still see 2026 inflation at 5.22% and the Selic rate at 13.25% at the end of the year.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket prices a Flávio Bolsonaro win in the 25 October runoff at 76.8% and a Lula win at 23.5%, with US$188 million traded (6:12 p.m. ET, 19 October 2026).
—Still unknown. Whether Tuesday’s session extends Monday’s drop in Petrobras.
—Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.8% · Lula 23.5% (US$188 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 22%
As of 19 October, 6:20 pm ET (23:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil’s benchmark stock index, the Ibovespa, fell 0.17% to 205,079 points on Monday, 19 October, as oil eased and traders watched tight polls ahead of the presidential runoff. Petrobras, the state-controlled oil company, lost 2.82% on its preferred shares, while fashion group Azzas 2154 jumped 13.25%.
The index touched 207,387.56 during the session, about 1% above Friday’s close of 205,430.33, before it slid to a small loss. The retreat came six days before the vote, with the Brazil stock market and the wider Brazil economy waiting for the result.
Sources: Banco Central do Brasil (Selic, Focus survey, PTAX), IBGE (IPCA), EODHD (market quotes). Checked Oct 19, 22:30 UTC.
How the Session Unfolded
Investors reacted to new polls on the second round between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a left-wing Workers’ Party leader, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the conservative Liberal Party. An AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg showed Bolsonaro with 49.8% of total voting intentions against 47.6% for Lula, while a BTG/Nexus poll the same day was reported as a technical tie.
The two candidates also met in a televised debate on Sunday, 18 October. The runoff takes place on Sunday, 25 October, and our election coverage tracks the campaign.
Petrobras Slides as Oil Eases
Petrobras preferred shares (PETR4) fell 2.82%, and its voting shares (PETR3) fell 2.93%. Brent crude for December delivery slipped 0.28% to US$109.55 a barrel.
Petrobras is one of the largest companies on the index, so its drop weighed on the whole market. US investors hold it through the New York-listed shares known as PBR.
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Azzas and MRV Lead the Gainers
Azzas 2154 (AZZA3), the owner of fashion brands such as Arezzo and Farm, led the index with a 13.25% jump to R$26.50. MRV (MRVE3), a homebuilder, rose 10.94% to R$8.01, while Marfrig, trading under the ticker MBRF3, fell 4.11% to R$18.20 (about US$3.60) and was the biggest loser.
Estadão reported that Citi upgraded both Azzas and MRV to buy, and Exame also credits the Azzas jump to the Citi upgrade. Our conversions use a rate of about R$5.05 per US$1.
What the Central Bank Survey Shows
The central bank’s Focus survey, published on Monday, left the median forecast for 2026 inflation at 5.22%. That is unchanged from the previous week and 0.72 percentage points above the 4.50% ceiling of the bank’s target range, which is 3% with a 1.5-point tolerance.
Economists also kept the year-end Selic rate forecast at 13.25%. A high Selic keeps borrowing costly for Brazilian households and companies.
What It Means for US Readers
For a dollar investor, Monday’s stronger real softened the index’s small loss: in dollar terms the Ibovespa was slightly higher, by our calculation. Brazilian shares held in the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) and ADRs such as Petrobras (PBR), Vale (VALE), Itaú (ITUB) and Nubank (NU) react to the same two forces, oil and the runoff.
For travellers and expats, a dollar still buys about R$5.05. Currency moves around the vote can be sharp, so large conversions near 25 October carry extra risk.
What Prediction Markets Say
- Polymarket, “Brazil Presidential Election”: Flávio Bolsonaro 76.8%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 23.5% (US$188 million traded).
Prices as of 6:12 p.m. ET, 19 October 2026. Prices are bets, not polls; Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Citi’s own research note was not available to us, and the polls differ on how close the race is. Tuesday’s session will show whether the drop in Petrobras continues.
Our Ibovespa guide and the Brazil economy pillar track how these pieces fit together.
Sources
B3, Ibovespa · Banco Central do Brasil, Focus survey · Estadão E-Investidor · InfoMoney · Exame · Polymarket
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Ibovespa do on 19 October 2026?
The Ibovespa closed down 0.17% at 205,079.25 points. It had reached 207,387.56 earlier in the session.
Why did Petrobras shares fall?
Petrobras preferred shares fell 2.82% while Brent crude for December delivery slipped 0.28% to US$109.55 a barrel. Brazilian reports linked the move to the weaker oil price.
How did the real move against the US dollar?
Brazil’s commercial dollar closed at R$5.048, down 0.49%. That means the real gained against the dollar.
Which stocks rose most on the Ibovespa?
Azzas 2154 rose 13.25% to R$26.50 (about US$5.25) and MRV rose 10.94% to R$8.01 (about US$1.59). Marfrig, trading as MBRF3, fell 4.11% and was the biggest loser.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
The runoff between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro is on Sunday, 25 October 2026.