Brazil Rival Asks Court to Void Lula Ticket
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, picks its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Wednesday 14 October, Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign asked the electoral court to cancel the Lula ticket over union support.
- The claim Eight union groups and left-leaning organizations allegedly acted as campaign committees. These are allegations, and the court has not ruled.
- The evidence The main item is a video of a teachers’ union director saying money is going into campaign committees in every state.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (16 October, 1:37 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 21% and 22%), as of 16 October, 3:00 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
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Brazil’s presidential challenger Flávio Bolsonaro asked the country’s electoral court on Wednesday 14 October to void the Lula ticket over alleged union financing. The filing, made 11 days before the 25 October runoff, accuses unions and left-wing groups of acting as campaign committees for Lula.
Bolsonaro, a conservative senator and son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Workers’ Party. Bettors on Polymarket, an online prediction market, favour Bolsonaro in the vote for Latin America’s largest economy.
What Flávio’s Campaign Asked the Court
The campaign’s lawyers filed the request on Wednesday 14 October with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which runs Brazil’s elections and judges campaign disputes. Revista Oeste describes it as an electoral investigation action against Lula and his running mate, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Socialist Party.
The filing names eight union groups and left-leaning organizations, InfoMoney and Times Brasil reported. Among them are the CUT labour federation, the MST landless movement and the UNE students’ union.
The lawyers want the Lula ticket cancelled, plus an eight-year ban on running for office for those found responsible, ND Mais reported. They allege abuse of economic power, abuse of political power and misuse of the media.
They also ask for an urgent order barring the groups from using offices, staff, vehicles and money for Lula until the runoff ends, Poder360 said. The campaign also wants posts and financial records preserved.
The Evidence Behind the Union Money Claim
The centrepiece is a video of Luiz Allan Kunzle, a director of the professors’ association at the Federal University of Paraná, at a pro-Lula event. He said the national union was putting money into committees in every Brazilian state, InfoMoney reported.
Kunzle’s association is linked to Andes-SN, a national union of university teachers, according to Jovem Pan. The video has circulated since 8 October, when Guilherme Kilter, a newly elected deputy of the free-market Novo party, posted it.
The filing cites CUT guidance to Lula supporters, pamphlets and stickers from Andes-SN, and joint slogans such as “Bolsonaros nunca mais” (“No more Bolsonaros”). It also questions more than 70 student assemblies held in support of Lula, Revista Oeste said.
The filing itself acknowledges a Supreme Court ruling, known as ADPF 548, that protects free expression of ideas at universities. Its authors argue that using staff, offices and channels for campaign messages still counts as a campaign contribution, according to Jovem Pan.
How Brazil’s Electoral Law Treats Union Money
Article 24 of Brazil’s Electoral Law, number 9,504 of 1997, bars candidates and parties from receiving donations from union or class bodies, directly or indirectly. The ban covers gifts in cash or valued in cash, including advertising of any kind, the law’s text says.
A party or candidate taking money from a banned source must return it or, if the donor is unknown, pay it to the national treasury. Jovem Pan adds that the filing also cites provisions on campaign advertising on the websites and profiles of legal entities.
According to Revista Oeste, the law allows a candidacy registration to be cancelled when abuse of economic power is proven. The court has not ruled on the claims against the Lula ticket, and the filing remains an allegation.
Earlier Court Orders Against Union Material
The filing follows two court orders against union campaign material. On 11 October, TSE Minister André Mendonça ordered the CUT to take down Instagram posts linking Flávio to militias, Times Brasil reported.
Diário do Grande ABC reported on Monday 12 October that TSE President Kassio Nunes Marques suspended a São Paulo oil workers’ union newspaper. The 30,000-copy edition risks a fine of R$10,000 (about US$1,980) per breach, at about 5.05 reais to the dollar on 16 October 2026.
Both orders followed requests from Flávio’s campaign, which argued that the material was electoral propaganda. The oil workers’ federation FUP called the newspaper ruling censorship and argued that unions must inform members about political proposals, Correio da Manhã reported.
The newspaper order is preliminary, and the full court still has to review it. The new filing takes the argument from single posts to the whole Lula ticket, with a possible ban on running.
What It Means for You
If you invest in Brazil, the case adds another courtroom storyline to a runoff that both bettors and polls see as close. A Quaest poll on 14 October put Flávio at 46% and Lula at 44%, as the Quaest poll report shows.
If you follow US politics or trade, the result on 25 October shapes Brazil’s ties with Washington for the next four years. Court fights over campaign rules have filled the final weeks, and the runoff poll tracker shows where the race stands.
None of this changes the date or the rules of the vote, and Brazilians choose between the two candidates on Sunday 25 October. No ruling on the request to void the Lula ticket has been announced.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (16 October, 1:37 a.m. ET). Lula stands at 20.5%, and Flávio’s price fell 3.7 points over the previous 24 hours while Lula’s rose 4.0 points.
The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$184.2 million in total bets. These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on court news.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79.2% · Lula 20.5% (US$184 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 16 October, 3:00 am ET (08:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The TSE has not said which minister will handle the case or when it will rule on the urgent request. It is not yet public how the Lula campaign and the named groups will answer.
No sum of money has been named in the filing as reported, and only some of the eight organizations have been identified. The claims against the Lula ticket come from an opposing campaign and have not been tested in court.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Flávio Bolsonaro ask the court to do?
He asked the TSE to investigate union support for Lula and to cancel the Lula ticket for abuse of economic power. His campaign filed the request on Wednesday 14 October.
Which law does the campaign cite against the Lula ticket?
It cites Article 24 of Electoral Law 9,504 of 1997, which bars candidates from receiving donations from union or class bodies. Jovem Pan reports that the filing also cites rules on campaign advertising on the websites of legal entities.
Will the court cancel the Lula ticket?
No ruling has been announced, and the claims are allegations from an opposing campaign. The runoff takes place on Sunday 25 October.
Who is running in the Brazil runoff?
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party faces Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party on Sunday 25 October. Polymarket bettors give Bolsonaro a 79.2% chance as of 16 October, 1:37 a.m. ET.
Sources: Presidency of Brazil, Electoral Law 9,504/1997, 30 September 1997; Poder360, 15 October 2026; Jovem Pan, 15 October 2026; ND Mais, 15 October 2026; Revista Oeste, 15 October 2026; InfoMoney (Estadão Conteúdo), 15 October 2026; Times Brasil, 15 October 2026; Times Brasil (CUT posts order), 11 October 2026; Diário do Grande ABC (Agência Brasil), 12 October 2026; Correio da Manhã, 12 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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