Financial experts revised the dollar’s 2023 value from 4.95 to 5 Brazilian Reais. This update appeared in the Focus Bulletin, a Central Bank release on Monday.
Additionally, the same bulletin slightly altered the 2024 inflation forecast from 3.87% to 3.88%. For this year, the inflation outlook remains at 4.86%.
On the interest rate front, analysts are sticking with an 11.75% Selic rate. For 2024, they anticipate a stable base rate of 9%. In the following years, the rate should hover at 8.5%.
In terms of economic growth, the Gross Domestic Product prediction stays at 2.92%. Experts forecast growth of 1.5% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025.
The Central Bank publishes the Focus Report every Monday. It gathers predictions from various analysts and has been doing so since 2000.
Background
The Focus Bulletin serves as a weekly pulse check on Brazil’s economy. Published every Monday by the Central Bank, it’s been a reliable forecast source since 2000.
The report gathers insights from financial experts to provide a broad view of economic trends.
This data can influence policy decisions and market behavior, making it significant for a broad audience.
Though minimal, the slight uptick in the 2024 inflation forecast is noteworthy. Even small changes can impact long-term economic planning and consumer prices.
The current inflation forecast remains moderate compared to historical data, which may relieve policymakers.
Interest rates, on the other hand, are holding steady.
This stability could indicate that the Central Bank has tools other than rate changes to manage inflation and stimulate economic growth.
The interest rates and inflation predictions together represent cautious optimism among financial experts.