Colombia’s Peso Holds Firm As Stocks Rally Despite Softer Oil

Key Points

1. The peso started Wednesday near 3,711–3,713 per $1 after Tuesday’s slide in USD/COP, even as Brent slipped to the mid‑$60s.
2. Colombia’s COLCAP jumped 1.95%, led by oil and heavyweight financial names, while small but positive COLO ETF flows hinted at steady foreign interest.
3. Near-term FX direction hinges on the U.S. data calendar, the Dollar Index’s tone, and whether 3,700 holds as support.

The Colombian peso entered the morning with a calmer, slightly stronger tone, trading around 3,711–3,713 per $1 offshore, after a heavy local session the day before.

Tuesday’s spot market opened at 3,730.33, traded as high as 3,766.00 and as low as 3,701.15, then closed at 3,716.99 on $1.36 billion in turnover across 1,920 trades.

Today’s official TRM was set at 3,730.26, leaving room for a softer open if sellers keep control below the mid-3,700s. Globally, the backdrop is mixed rather than risk-off.

The Dollar Index was last marked near 98.54, with traders focused on U.S. labor updates ahead of payrolls, while the U.S. 10-year yield hovered around 4.16%.

One strategist summed up the mood simply: markets are more concerned about incoming U.S. data than chasing new themes. Oil is the uncomfortable variable.

Brent dropped back to the mid‑$60s after Venezuela-linked headlines revived supply and policy uncertainty. That usually matters for Colombia’s terms of trade and fiscal optics.

Yet the FX market still found buyers, reflecting carry appeal and, in our reporting, a market that has repeatedly looked past political noise to reward Colombia’s institutional policy anchors—though critics warn that sustained oil weakness could test that patience if fiscal buffers thin. Technically, the 4-hour USD/COP chart keeps momentum tilted lower, while the daily chart suggests the downswing is slowing.

The key line is 3,700: a clean break points toward the high-3,600s, while a rebound through 3,730–3,745 would shift the week back into range trading.

Stocks, meanwhile, were the bright spot. The MSCI COLCAP closed at 2,295.849, up 0.01%, on COP 260.2 billion (about $70 million) in turnover.

Ecopetrol rose as much as 5.21%, and Grupo Cibest preferred added roughly 4%. Offshore, the COLO ETF priced at $37.59 with $118.66 million in assets, and recent net inflows stayed positive (+$3.55 million over five days; +$6.18 million over one month).

Top 5 Winners: COLCAP; Ecopetrol; Grupo Cibest preferred; the peso (COP); COLO ETF inflows.

Top 5 Losers: Brent crude; the Dollar Index; USD/COP long positions; Colombia’s oil-linked fiscal narrative; short-term USD/COP momentum.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombian markets and Latin American financial news.

For context on regional markets, see Brazil’s Ibovespa for the same session.

Also tracking regional peers: Chile’s IPSA closed the same session.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Colombia’s Export Slide Shows A Commodity Reset, Not A Colla

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