Argentina’s Economy Shows Strong Annual Growth but Weakens Month by Month

Argentina’s economy shrank for the second month in a row in June, according to official figures from INDEC. Activity fell 0.7 percent from May, after a 0.2 percent drop in May compared with April.

Despite this slowdown, the economy still grew 6.4 percent compared with June 2024. The contrast between yearly and monthly results highlights the real story: Argentina’s economy looks healthy on paper, but momentum is fading.

Adjusted data shows that activity remains 1.3 percent below February 2025 levels. June was also the fourth month this year with a decline, following January, March, and May.

The breakdown reveals sharp differences across sectors. Finance surged 28.7 percent over the year, boosted by strong demand for credit and capital.

Retail and wholesale trade rose 11.5 percent, while manufacturing grew 7.8 percent. These gains supported overall growth. Other areas pulled the index down.

Fishing collapsed 74.6 percent compared with last year, one of the steepest falls in decades. Public administration and defense slipped 0.7 percent, as did community and social services.

Together these declines reduced 0.46 percentage points from the annual increase. The underlying trend-cycle component still rose 0.3 percent in June, meaning the economy has not entered a full reversal.

However, repeated monthly losses raise concerns about stability. INDEC confirmed that the first half of 2025 closed with 6.2 percent growth compared with the same period in 2024, but the string of negative months signals a fragile balance.

For businesses and investors, the message is clear: annual growth figures mask a weaker short-term reality. If the monthly declines continue, Argentina’s apparent recovery could lose force quickly.

The next activity report, due on September 24, will show if the slowdown is temporary or the start of a deeper contraction. Argentina now faces a paradox: high annual growth rates coexist with monthly weakness that erodes confidence.

For outsiders watching one of South America’s largest markets, the real test lies not in the big yearly numbers but in whether Argentina can stop the month-to-month slide before it spills into jobs, sales, and investment.

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