Argentina’s Menem Says Milei Runs Again, Bets Show 56%
POLITICS · ARGENTINA
Key Facts
- —The country Argentina, South America’s second-largest economy, is governed by libertarian President Javier Milei, in office since 10 December 2023.
- —Why it matters Milei is one of Washington’s closest allies in Latin America. A second term would extend his tax cuts and deregulation to 2031.
- —Why now Rumours about the economy minister’s future, a congressional fight over a decree and talks with governors have unsettled the ruling camp.
- —What happened On Sunday 11 October, lower-house speaker Martín Menem said on LN+ television that “the President is going for re-election” in 2027.
- —What it means for you Holders of Argentine bonds and New York-listed Argentine shares get a clearer signal that the current policy line is meant to continue.
- —Still open Milei has not formally launched a campaign, and it is undecided whether the PASO primaries will be held in 2027.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Javier Milei a 56% chance of winning Argentina’s 2027 presidential election (12 October, 1:34 a.m. ET).
Argentina’s ruling party has put an end to speculation about Milei re-election plans. Martín Menem, president of the Chamber of Deputies, said on Sunday 11 October that Javier Milei will be its candidate in 2027. For American investors and for the Trump administration, which has openly backed Milei, it signals that his market-friendly programme is meant to run beyond 2027.
“There is no doubt that the candidate in 2027 is the President. The President is going for re-election,” Menem said, according to Perfil. He spoke to journalist Luis Majul on La Cornisa, a political programme on the cable channel LN+.
Menem, a deputy for La Rioja province, belongs to La Libertad Avanza (LLA), the libertarian party Milei founded. As speaker, he chairs the lower house and is one of the president’s most loyal allies in Congress.
He went further, according to the Argentine outlet El Intransigente. Milei, he said, “is going to be the first non-Peronist president re-elected since the return of democracy.” Since 1983, only two presidents have won a second consecutive term, Carlos Menem and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Both came from Peronism, the populist movement that has dominated Argentine politics for decades.
Argentina’s constitution allows a president one consecutive re-election. Milei’s current term ends in December 2027.
Menem Shields Caputo and Plays Down Rifts
Much of the interview was about holding the ruling camp together. Menem rejected reports that Economy Minister Luis Caputo, the architect of Milei’s stabilisation plan, might leave.
“There is no doubt about Toto’s continuity, let that be clear,” he said, using Caputo’s nickname. He blamed “an army of operators” for spreading the rumours whenever the minister made progress. “It is not Toto, it is the government,” he added, according to Perfil.
He also played down friction with Senator Patricia Bullrich, Milei’s former security minister. “Patricia has had her own view from the first day, and Milei has accepted it,” Menem said. He called internal differences “healthy”.
On the economy, Menem admitted that some sectors are struggling. He blamed part of the slowdown on higher world oil prices and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, Perfil reported. He rejected claims that the economy is destroying jobs, according to the congressional news site Parlamentario.
Governors, Primaries and the Decree Fight
Menem said LLA will seek electoral alliances with provincial governors only if they share its agenda. He named tax cuts, deregulation, legal certainty and economic predictability. “It would be much easier to close deals quickly with any governor who crosses our path,” he said. Lasting alliances, he argued, need similar programmes.
Menem repeated that he wants the PASO, Argentina’s open, simultaneous and mandatory primaries, scrapped for good. “It is an unnecessary expense,” he said, adding that taxpayers should not fund each party’s internal contest.
He also attacked an opposition push to overturn Decree 70/23, Milei’s sweeping deregulation decree of December 2023. If it fell, he warned, repealed laws on rents, supermarket shelf space and supply controls would return, Parlamentario reported.
Asked about Axel Kicillof, the Peronist governor of Buenos Aires province and a likely rival, Menem declined to comment. “We compete against ourselves. We have to focus on our management,” he said.
What It Means for You
For investors in Argentine dollar bonds and New York-listed shares, the main question about 2027 is whether Milei’s policies survive him. Menem’s statement on Milei re-election does not answer that, but it removes doubt about who will defend them.
The stabiliser is that the message came with a firm backing of Caputo, whose departure would worry markets more than any campaign speech. The risk is that an early campaign can push a government towards spending or currency choices that please voters before they please creditors.
For US policymakers, Milei has been one of the Trump administration’s most consistent allies in the region. A credible Milei re-election bid keeps that alignment on the table for another four years.
For travellers and residents, nothing changes in the short term. The election is a year away and no new measures were announced.
Background on the ruling camp’s base is in our report Argentina Poll Shows Milei Keeps 50.5% of His Voters. The primaries fight is covered in Argentina Woos 5 Radical Governors to Suspend Primaries, and the decree battle in Argentina Opposition 14 Deputies Short on Milei Decree.
What Is Not Known
Milei himself did not speak in the interview, and no formal candidacy for a Milei re-election has been registered. Menem spoke as a senior party figure, not as the candidate.
It is not known whether the PASO will be held in 2027, which affects how and when candidates are chosen. It is also unclear which governors will join LLA alliances, and on what terms. The outcome of the opposition’s attempt to overturn Decree 70/23 in the lower house is still pending.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bettors give Milei a 55.5% chance of winning the 2027 presidential election, as of 1:34 a.m. ET on Monday 12 October. Kicillof is second at 32.5%, and former economy minister Sergio Massa third at 7.6%. These are bets, not polls.
The overall market has drawn about US$837,000 in trading volume, including about US$202,000 on Milei alone. There was no big move on Milei re-election odds after the interview. Milei’s price was up half a point on the day and about four points over the past month.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can Javier Milei legally run for re-election in 2027?
Yes. Argentina’s constitution allows a president to serve one consecutive re-election. Milei took office on 10 December 2023, and his current term ends in December 2027.
Who is Martín Menem?
He is the president of Argentina’s Chamber of Deputies and a deputy for La Rioja for La Libertad Avanza, Milei’s libertarian party. He was first elected speaker on 7 December 2023 and still holds the post.
Has Milei officially announced his candidacy?
No. Menem said on 11 October that Milei will be the party’s candidate, but there has been no formal launch or registration. Candidacies are registered closer to the election.
Sources: Perfil, 11 October 2026; Parlamentario, 11 October 2026; El Intransigente, 11 October 2026; Chamber of Deputies of Argentina, 7 December 2023; Polymarket market data, 12 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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