Argentina Markets Morning Brief — November 14, 2025
The peso is trading around 1,407 per dollar at the wholesale reference this morning, little changed. In the retail screens the official sits near 1,430, while the blue dollar is roughly 1,415/1,435 bid/ask—leaving the gap essentially at parity with a slight blue premium.
Financial quotes (MEP and CCL) remain modestly above the official. The near-equality between blue and official is unusual for Argentina and points to a calmer cash market, tighter peso liquidity, and tentative confidence in reserves management.
Global backdrop is mildly supportive. The U.S. Dollar Index has eased from recent highs, trimming broad FX pressure and helping local risk start the day steadier.
Stocks: after Thursday’s pullback of about 3%, the S&P Merval is hovering near 2.88 million, consolidating a powerful October–early November advance.
Local sovereigns trade mixed, with investors balancing optimism on reserve rebuilding against caution over the pace of FX-control normalization and fiscal signals.
Policy and desk color: traders continue to watch IMF communications and the flow of official measures around import payments and reserve accumulation.
The tight blue–official spread is being attributed on desks to firmer local rates, limited cash demand, and steady supply in informal channels. No fresh on-record quotes or large ETF flow prints were available at writing.
Technical picture — USD/ARS
4-hour chart (image provided): price is coiling around 1,407 near the middle Bollinger band. MACD is negative but improving, and RSI sits in the low-30s—signs of fading downside momentum.
Immediate support is 1,398–1,400; resistance 1,411, then 1,422–1,428. A stronger dollar would likely test the top of that band; continued global dollar softness favors a drift toward 1,398 before dip-buyers appear.
Daily chart: the uptrend has flattened into a range. RSI in the mid-40s and a rolling MACD argue for consolidation rather than reversal. Holding 1,392–1,398 preserves a constructive medium-term bias.
Technical picture — Equities (Merval)
Daily: after overbought readings, RSI has cooled into the high-60s and MACD is rolling. First supports cluster near 2.74–2.64 million (rising averages and prior breakout shelf); resistance is 2.98–3.00 million.
4-hour: momentum has turned negative but is stabilizing; basing above roughly 2.83 million would keep any pullback orderly.
Bottom line: a softer global dollar and a compressed blue–official gap leave near-term FX risks balanced into the weekend. Equities are digesting gains; if policy messaging stays on track, dips toward the cited support zones may attract buyers.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
-0.59%
167,830.27
+0.90%
64,193.66
+0.41%
11,241.32
+0.49%
2,874,493
-0.59%
2,453.87
-0.30%
57,612.45
+1.33%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,874,493 | -0.59% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
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