Why Latin America Is the Surprise Winner of the Trade War

Key Points

The numbers tell a story that would have seemed improbable five years ago. Latin America, long cast as a commodity supplier on the margins of global manufacturing, is being repositioned at the center of a trade system breaking apart and reassembling itself. A new Citi report makes the case that the region is not merely surviving the disruption — it is winning from it.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American news and Latin American financial news.

The Scale of the Shift

The Citi GPS report, titled “Supply Chain Financing – Durable Global Trade in the Age of AI,” maps how trade flows have reorganized since the pandemic. Latin American exports to South Asia and the ten ASEAN nations surged 82% between 2019 and 2024, the single largest corridor increase Citi tracked anywhere in the world. In the other direction, exports from North and East Asia — including China — to Latin America jumped 59% over the same period.

The automobile sector illustrates the velocity. Chinese vehicle and auto-parts exports to Latin America between 2024 and 2025 exceeded 2019 levels by more than 200%. Meanwhile, Latin American exports to North America climbed 43%, outpacing the 32% growth in U.S. imports from North and East Asia. The region is simultaneously selling more to Asia and to the United States, a two-front expansion that few predicted.

Critical Minerals and Soy: The New Leverage

Citi identifies Latin America as a “vital supplier of critical minerals for Asia’s electronics industry” and as an increasingly important alternative to the United States for agricultural commodities like soy. This dual role — feeding Asian factories and Asian populations — has made the region what Citi calls an “indispensable provider” in the new multipolar trade order.

ECLAC’s 2025 trade outlook reinforces that finding, projecting that Latin American exports to China would grow 7% in value, driven by meat, soy and higher copper prices. China has been the region’s fastest-growing export destination, with imports flowing in both directions — purchases from China up a projected 13% and from the rest of Asia up 18%.

Investment Follows the Trade

Capital is moving in the same direction as goods. Foreign direct investment in Latin America and the Caribbean rose 12% in the first half of 2025, according to UNCTAD, at a time when global FDI fell 3% and developed economies contracted sharply. Citi’s survey of 710 large corporations found that 65% are actively diversifying supply chains away from at least one country, with Mexico among the top preferred destinations alongside Vietnam, Thailand and India.

The nearshoring incentive is strong. Forty-four percent of companies in Latin America cited improved proximity to end consumers as a key benefit of relocating — the highest share of any region surveyed. The region is also leading globally on sustainability criteria in supplier relationships: 50% of Latin American firms reported adding new suppliers specifically for environmental and social reasons, above North America at 40% and Asia-Pacific at 35%.

The Tariff Backdrop

The report arrives as U.S. tariffs have risen from roughly 2.4% to approximately 16.8% under the current administration. Citi’s proprietary Supply Chain Pressure Index shows that despite this shock, disruption has remained contained near pre-pandemic levels. Companies absorbed the impact through strategic inventory management, supplier diversification and accelerated nearshoring — precisely the dynamics benefiting Latin America.

The deeper implication is structural. When 82% export growth to ASEAN runs alongside 43% growth to North America, and FDI rises while global flows fall, Latin America is not riding a temporary wave. It is being wired into a new architecture where proximity, commodities and supply-chain flexibility matter more than they did when the old system was intact.

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