Why Colombia’s 2026 Elections Could Turn Deadly

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• ▸ A presidential candidate was assassinated, a senator’s bodyguards killed, and a congresswoman kidnapped — the worst political violence in over three decades

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• ▸ The MOE watchdog counts 170 at-risk municipalities, a 30% jump from 2022, with 81 in “extreme risk” ahead of the March 8 congressional vote

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• ▸ Investment has fallen to 16% of GDP — a two-decade low — as extortion and insecurity hollow out rural Colombia’s economy

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One of Latin America’s oldest democracies is heading into an election under siege. With congressional elections on March 8 and a presidential vote on May 31, Colombia‘s candidates are calculating which parts of the country they can still safely enter rather than debating policy on the trail. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombia affairs and Latin American financial news.

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The toll is staggering. Last year, presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay was assassinated — the first killing of a presidential aspirant in over 30 years. In February, ELN guerrillas ambushed senator Jairo Castellanos’s convoy in Arauca, killing two bodyguards. His vehicle was hit by over 400 rounds. Days later, congresswoman Aida Quilcué was kidnapped in Cauca. Presidential candidates Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella have both received direct threats, with the ELN declaring De la Espriella a military target on February 10.

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The independent Misión de Observación Electoral now counts 170 municipalities at electoral risk — a 30 percent increase from 2022, with 81 classified as extreme. Departments including Arauca, Cauca, and Norte de Santander are effectively off-limits without permission from armed groups who control territory, dictate which candidates may enter, and pressure voters on how to cast ballots. Colombia’s ombudswoman Iris Marín Ortiz says the new factions care less about ideology than protecting cocaine, gold, and extortion revenues.

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Failed Peace, Weakened Economy

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President Petro’s “Total Peace” negotiations with eight armed groups have yielded no significant demobilizations. The Clan del Golfo, Colombia’s largest cocaine cartel, abandoned talks after Petro pledged to pursue its leader following his February 3 meeting with Donald Trump. Investment has sunk to roughly 16 percent of GDP — a two-decade low — as extortionists target freight, energy, and agribusiness forced to operate in remote areas.

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Polls show the race splitting between Iván Cepeda, architect of Petro’s negotiation approach, and De la Espriella, who promises to end all talks and bombard groups that refuse to surrender. For the 3,000-plus congressional candidates who must now decide whether to campaign in territories where the state has little presence, the question is existential. Colombia’s democracy survived the Medellín Cartel’s assassination campaigns of the late 1980s. Whether its institutions can endure this new siege will be tested in the coming weeks.

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