VENEZUELA · TRADE
Key Facts
- —The country Venezuela is a South American oil exporter whose trade outlook is tracked each year by the United Nations regional commission for Latin America.
- —Why it matters Terms of trade show how much Venezuela’s export income buys abroad, which matters to US oil buyers and to investors in the region.
- —Why now The annual trade outlook came out on Thursday 15 October 2026, and Venezuela-specific figures drew local coverage on Sunday 18 October.
- —What happened The commission projects Venezuela’s terms of trade up 23% in 2026, second in the region behind Peru at 26%, and goods exports up 17% to US$29.146 billion.
- —The numbers Export prices rise 28% while export volume falls 11%, and imports fall 11% to US$15.94 billion, with first-half exports up 60%.
- —What it means for you US oil buyers and investors see an income gain driven by price rather than by shipments, so it depends on prices holding.
- —Still open Whether prices hold in the second half of 2026, and why the report’s value, price and volume figures do not reconcile exactly.
- —Power Index Venezuela ranks 13th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 27.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Venezuela terms of trade are projected to improve 23% in 2026, the second-largest gain in Latin America, in a United Nations regional report published on Thursday 15 October 2026. The same report, from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal), projects Venezuelan goods exports of US$29.146 billion, up 17%.
The detail matters to US readers because the gain comes from price, not volume, with the quantity of exports projected to fall 11%. Oil buyers, investors in regional assets and sanctions watchers read that difference closely.
The Venezuela-specific numbers reached local readers on Sunday 18 October, when Bloomberg Línea, Banca y Negocios and Descifrado stressed the terms-of-trade ranking. La Verdad added the country’s export and import figures, and the same report drove our earlier story Mexico Exports to Jump 26%, UN Body Says.
How Venezuela Terms of Trade Reach 23%
Terms of trade compare the prices a country gets for its exports with the prices it pays for imports. Cepal projects Venezuelan export prices up 28% in 2026 and import prices up 4%.
Dividing one by the other gives about 23%, which matches the report’s figure (our calculation). A gain of that size means each unit of exports buys more imports than a year earlier.
Peru leads the region at 26%, ahead of Venezuela at 23%, Bolivia at 18%, Jamaica at 16%, Trinidad and Tobago at 15% and Guyana at 14%. The report ties the largest gains mainly to higher prices of hydrocarbons and other commodities.
For Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole, terms of trade are projected to rise 6% in 2026. The report says export prices are rising faster than import prices.
Venezuela Exports Rise 17% on Price, Not Volume
Cepal projects Venezuelan goods exports at US$29.146 billion in 2026, up 17% from US$24.911 billion in 2025. The 2025 figure was slightly below the US$25.071 billion of 2024.
The report puts export prices up 28% and export volume down 11%. Volume is the quantity shipped, so the rise in value comes from higher prices alone.
Imports are projected to fall 11% in value to US$15.94 billion, with import prices up 4% and import volume down 15%. By our reading of the report’s country table, that is the steepest projected fall in import volume.
Exports for the whole region are projected to grow 20%, so Venezuela’s 17% sits below the regional pace. Regional export volume is projected to rise 9%, against a fall of 11% in Venezuela.
A Sharp First-Half Rebound
Cepal’s data show Venezuelan goods exports up 60% in January to June 2026 from a year earlier. Imports rose 40% over the same period.
The first half of 2025 had been weak, with exports down 27% and imports down 35%. Part of the 2026 jump therefore comes from a low starting point.
A full-year rise of 17% after a 60% first-half jump implies much slower growth, and possibly a decline, in the second half (our inference). The sources reviewed do not give the report’s half-year split for 2025.
Venezuela and US Tariffs in the Report
The report says the US trade representative opened an investigation on 12 March 2026 into whether 86 countries, Venezuela among them, enforce bans on goods made with forced labour. On 2 June it proposed an extra tariff of 12.5% for most of them and 10% for 17 countries, and the new rates took effect on 24 July.
Venezuela is not among the seven Latin American countries named at the 10% rate. A note to the report’s tariff chart lists Venezuela among the economies facing a weighted average US tariff below 1% since 24 July, and the passages reviewed do not explain why.
What It Means for You
For US investors, a 23% terms-of-trade gain signals more external income for Venezuela if oil and commodity prices hold. It does not by itself raise production, since Cepal projects the volume of exports to fall.
Energy buyers and traders should note that the projected gain depends on prices staying high. Our guide Venezuela Economy 2026, IMF Sees 4% Growth, 387% Inflation sets the wider economic picture, and The US Is Now the Top Buyer of Venezuela’s Oil covers the US link.
Travellers and residents feel inflation and exchange rates more than terms of trade. A better trade balance does not guarantee lower shop prices at home.
What Is Not Known
All 2026 figures are Cepal projections, not outturn data, and the sections reviewed do not state which oil price the commission assumes. No separate Venezuelan central bank figure for 2026 trade was found, so the numbers rest on Cepal alone.
The report’s value, price and volume figures do not reconcile exactly. Export prices up 28% and volume down 11% would give about 14% for exports, not 17%, and imports of US$17.517 billion in 2025 and US$15.94 billion in 2026 imply a fall near 9%, not 11% (our calculation).
It is not known how much of the export income reaches the budget or households. Terms of trade measure the purchasing power of exports, not growth or incomes.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Cepal forecast for Venezuela terms of trade?
Cepal projects a 23% improvement in 2026, the second-largest in Latin America after Peru at 26%. The regional average is 6%.
How much will Venezuela exports reach in 2026?
Cepal projects goods exports of US$29.146 billion, up 17% from US$24.911 billion in 2025. Export prices rise 28% while export volume falls 11%.
What are terms of trade?
They compare the prices a country receives for exports with the prices it pays for imports. A rise means exports buy more imports.
When was the Cepal report published?
Cepal published its annual trade outlook on Thursday 15 October 2026. Local outlets reported the Venezuela figures on Sunday 18 October.
What does it mean for US readers?
It shows Venezuela’s trade income rising on prices rather than shipments, which matters to oil buyers and investors. It also depends on prices holding.
Sources: Cepal, Perspectivas del Comercio Internacional de América Latina y el Caribe 2026, 15 October 2026; Bloomberg Línea, 18 October 2026; Banca y Negocios, 18 October 2026; La Verdad, 18 October 2026; Descifrado, 18 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error