Venezuela Eyes 12% Growth as War Fills Oil Coffers
Key Points
— Economic projections cited by Andrés Oppenheimer in Reforma (April 9) forecast Venezuela’s GDP could grow 12% in 2026, driven by war-elevated oil prices and the lifting of US sanctions under the Trump-Rodríguez rapprochement
— Trump has publicly praised interim president Delcy Rodríguez and prioritized oil supply over democratic restoration — reestablishing diplomatic relations while María Corina Machado remains proscribed and political prisoners detained
— The projection sits alongside the paradox of April 9’s salary protests: workers earning under $1 per month storming police lines in Caracas while the macro economy booms on paper
Venezuela GDP growth of 12% in 2026 would be the fastest in Latin America by a wide margin — and the most cynical, delivered by a government that pays its workers less than a dollar a month while pocketing a war-driven oil windfall that exists only because the world’s largest democracy decided sanctions relief was worth more than democratic restoration.
The 12% projection, cited by columnist Andrés Oppenheimer in his April 9 Reforma analysis reviewed by Intelimedios, draws on economic studies that factor in three converging tailwinds: Brent crude prices that have averaged above $100 since the Iran war began, the removal of most US sanctions following the Trump-Rodríguez diplomatic reset, and the resumption of Venezuelan oil exports to previously closed markets — including, as Bloomberg reported this week, Peru’s first purchase of Venezuelan crude since 2009.
Oppenheimer frames the projection within the broader argument that Trump has made a deliberate choice to prioritize oil supply over democratic principles in Venezuela. The US reestablished diplomatic relations with the Rodríguez government, praised the interim president publicly, and lifted sanctions that had constrained Venezuelan output for years. In exchange, Washington secured supply commitments at a moment when the Strait of Hormuz disruption made every available barrel strategically valuable. María Corina Machado, who won the opposition primary and remains the most popular political figure in Venezuela according to polling data, is still barred from running for office. Political prisoners remain detained.
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| WHEAT | 672.75 | -1.46% | +24.07% | 682.75 | 692.25 | 672.75 | 75,758 |
| COFFEE | 323.50 | -1.51% | +8.83% | 328.45 | 327.05 | 315.40 | — |
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Growth Without Wages
The disconnect between headline GDP and lived economic reality was on full display on April 9, when workers broke through police lines in Caracas demanding salary increases. Venezuela’s minimum wage remains at 130 bolívares — less than $1 — frozen since March 2022. The government has 5.7 million pensioners and 5.3 million active workers, financing 91% of pension payments from the budget. Rodríguez promised a “responsible increase” from May 1 but gave no amount. As we analyzed in our coverage of Venezuela’s hyperinflation legacy, growth measured in GDP does not reach the payroll — and until it does, the streets of Caracas will tell a different story than the macro charts.
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