US Makes Uganda First Test of Trade Over Aid Push With US$1.2 Billion Plan
Uganda · GEOPOLITICS
Key Facts
- —The country Uganda is a landlocked East African nation of about 51 million people. Its economy was worth about US$62 billion in 2025, according to the World Bank.
- —Why it matters For decades, Washington’s role in Uganda rested on aid, above all HIV and health funding. The Trump administration now wants trade deals and private capital to carry more of that weight.
- —Why now On Friday 25 September, during United Nations (UN) leaders’ week in New York, Washington named a Ugandan project the first deal under its “Trade Over Aid” initiative.
- —What happened Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau hosted a showcase where Uganda’s Roosevelt Africa Trail pitched an indicative US$1.2 billion investment pipeline to American financiers.
- —The numbers A health pact signed on 10 December 2025 is worth up to US$2.3 billion over five years, including US$1.7 billion from Washington.
- —What it means for you Investors may be offered tourism, coffee-processing and digital projects on commercial terms, possibly backed by America’s export-credit bank or its development finance agency.
- —Still open None of the US$1.2 billion is approved. Each project still needs feasibility studies, due diligence and a financing decision.
Uganda has become the first test of Washington’s plan to replace aid with deals. The US Uganda investment pitch now mixes firm health commitments with early-stage proposals that still need money.
The United States is recasting its economic pitch to Uganda, a country of about 51 million people, around trade and investment rather than grants. The clearest sign came on Friday 25 September in New York, during the annual UN General Assembly.
There, the State Department presented Uganda’s Roosevelt Africa Trail as the first project under its “Trade Over Aid” deals initiative. Promoters put an indicative US$1.2 billion price tag on the Ugandan pipeline.
Who made the pitch, and where
Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, the number two at the State Department, hosted the Trade Over Aid Deals Showcase at the Lotte New York Palace hotel. Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the UN, co-hosted the event.
John Jovanovic, president and chairman of the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM), the government’s export-credit agency, was the third co-host. Officials from the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which lends to private projects abroad, also attended.
Uganda’s delegation included its ambassador to the United States, Robie Kakonge. The Trade Over Aid initiative itself was launched at the US Mission to the UN in April 2026.
The Roosevelt Africa Trail proposal
The trail draws on former President Theodore Roosevelt’s 1909–1910 expedition through East Africa. In Uganda, the proposed corridor runs from Entebbe and Kampala to Murchison Falls and on to the West Nile region.
Promoters want to turn the route into an economic corridor covering tourism, hospitality, agriculture, technology and conservation. Plans include a museum, a resort and digital “smart monuments” along the way.
A coffee brand aims to sell roasted and packaged Ugandan coffee in America, rather than raw beans. Promoters say Keurig has shown interest, a claim that could not be independently confirmed.
The US$1.2 billion covers Uganda alone and is a bundle of proposals, not one investment. Kenya and South Sudan, also on the historical route, are expected to build separate pipelines.
A health pact framed as co-investment
The older and firmer part of the relationship is health. On 10 December 2025, the two governments signed a five-year health cooperation memorandum of understanding worth up to US$2.3 billion.
Washington plans to provide up to US$1.7 billion under the pact. Uganda has committed about US$577 million in extra domestic health spending, which the US Embassy in Kampala presents as co-financing.
A joint steering committee launched in May 2026, with US$410 million in American support planned for the first year. These are planned sums, not proof that the full amount will be paid out.
Trade numbers and policy constraints
The commercial base is small. According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, two-way goods trade with Uganda was about US$318 million in 2025.
American imports from Uganda rose 50.3 percent to US$198.5 million in 2025, while US exports reached US$119.4 million. Services trade, including tourism and transport, added about US$827 million.
Washington removed Uganda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a US duty-free trade scheme, from January 2024. It cited gross human-rights violations after Uganda passed a harsh anti-gay law in 2023.
Competition with China
The strategic backdrop is competition for influence in East Africa. Chinese contractors and lenders built much of Uganda’s recent infrastructure, including the Kampala–Entebbe Expressway and the Karuma and Isimba hydropower dams.
Washington is offering a different model built on private capital and commercial terms. Its trade footprint in Uganda, however, remains modest.
The broader pattern fits the dynamics covered in Africa: The New Scramble, where commercial diplomacy and great-power rivalry increasingly overlap.
What the pivot means for investors
For investors watching East Africa, the shift from aid to investment changes the kind of opportunity on offer. Donor-funded programmes give way to commercially structured projects that must earn a return.
The health pact shows Washington will still commit large planned sums where it sees strategic value. The Roosevelt Africa Trail shows Kampala courting American capital well beyond health.
Yet the gap between indicative figures and secured financing is wide. Governance concerns and the loss of AGOA trade preferences will shape how quickly any US Uganda investment becomes real money.
What to watch next
The next step is splitting the US$1.2 billion pipeline into individual projects. Each will need feasibility studies, local and American partners, and eligibility checks.
Watch for any formal application to the DFC or EXIM, the two agencies named as possible financing routes. A signed financing deal would mark the first real step beyond the showcase.
Disbursements under the health pact will also be telling. They will show whether co-investment is a lasting model or mostly a new label for aid.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the US Uganda investment shift about?
Washington is moving its economic pitch to Uganda from grants toward trade and private investment. On 25 September 2026 it named Uganda’s Roosevelt Africa Trail the first project under its Trade Over Aid deals initiative.
Who announced the Roosevelt Africa Trail deal?
Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau hosted the showcase in New York during UN leaders’ week. The US ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, and the head of the Export-Import Bank, John Jovanovic, co-hosted it.
How much is the US health pact with Uganda worth?
The five-year memorandum signed on 10 December 2025 is valued at up to US$2.3 billion. It includes up to US$1.7 billion in planned American support and about US$577 million in extra Ugandan health spending.
Is the US$1.2 billion approved US funding?
No. It is an indicative pipeline of proposed projects, and each still needs feasibility studies, due diligence and a financing decision before any money moves.
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