Analysis: The Latin American left trembles at the meteoric rise of right-wing presidential candidate Kast in Chile

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The United States, Brazil, Spain, Hungary, France and now Chile. The South American country cannot escape the global surge of right-wing conservatives, who have a chance to reach the presidential seat of La Moneda for the first time in a long time.

The left in Latin America who along with leftist mainstream media in New York, London, Paris and Madrid would like to make the puppets dance in the southern part of the American continent, are trembling with fear.

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If Chile, of all countries, one of the most progressive, prosperous, secure and admired in South America, were to move to the right, it would be a slap in the face to the left.

A few months ago Peru sheered off to the left with Pedro Castillo and the same could have happened with Chile.

The man responsible for this ‘change of plans’ is José Antonio Kast, a conservative who is maligned by the left as an ultra-rightist, super-rightist or other right-wing superlatives.

Some polls see Kast as one of the two favorites in next Sunday’s crucial election to choose Sebastián Piñera’s successor.

In less than two months, Kast has managed to double his support to over 20% of eligible voters and position himself as second or even first preference in some polls, ahead of the other favorite, leftist deputy Gabriel Boric.

Neither would win outright in the first round, polls say, and they would have to face a runoff on December 19, but their meteoric rise is polarizing an important election in Chile, a country that has yet to recover from the severe social crisis of 2019, where the drafting of a new constitution is underway.

Outside Chile, there are more than a few supporters of Kast – a fan of former U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.

Most leftists in Latin America regularly choke on the word “Bolsonaro fan,” having ensured, with international help through hard work, that the Brazilian president’s reputation is so permanently ruined that the word “Bolsonarista” is already widely considered a dirty word.

And now this. Chile, widely admired, could elect a Bolsonaro supporter.

The former parliamentarian belongs to the Madrid Forum, an “anti-communist” space recently created by the right-wing Vox party, the third force in the Spanish Congress, to position itself in the region.

Until now, political rhetoric in South America has been dominated by the leftist Forum de São Paulo and the Puebla Group, which now have competition. The clamor from the left has not stopped since.

THE REASONS FOR THE RISE

Kast’s will to dig a trench to prevent irregular migration, at a time when the arrival of migrants across the northern border has skyrocketed, or his commitment to fighting violence in the south, where there is a long-standing conflict between the indigenous population and foresters with constant arson attacks and fatalities, are among some of the reasons for his success.

For Jaime Abedrapo, head of the School of Government at the University of San Sebastián, his “clear and simple” discourse on security and the fight against violence has left an impression on a part of the right where there is a growing sense of “insecurity and disorder”.

On the other hand, his economic proposals to cut government spending and lower taxes are appealing in certain circles in Chile, the cradle of neoliberalism in Latin America.

“Kast is trying to return Chile to the image of a country admired for its stability, its macroeconomic structure or its ability to overcome poverty – ideas that have been obliterated with the social crisis of 2019,” an observer says.

THE TWO COOL

The steady progress of his candidacy contrasts with a country that decided in 2020 to change its current constitution, a legacy of the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990), and to entrust a progressive, diverse, gender-parity constituent assembly with indigenous participation to draft a new constitution.

According to Kenneth Bunker, director of the Tresquintos polling institute, Kast appeals primarily to the 20% of the population “who belong to a core group that still defends Pinochet’s legacy and did not even want to change the constitution.”

His vehement opposition to abortion or same sex marriage contrasts with Boric’s proposals, and that “has revived a part of the right that has always been there but now sees in him a real possibility to govern,” he added.

In the historic 1988 plebiscite, nearly 45% of the population voted to continue the military dictatorship, Javier Sajuria of Queen Mary University of London in the United Kingdom told Efe.

“There are not as many Pinochetists alive as there were then, but the principle is the same. It is the same population that is producing what may be the first populist leader of Chilean democracy,” he said.

In his 2017 campaign, in which he received nearly 8% support as an independent, Kast went so far as to say that general Pinochet would have voted for him if he were still alive.

In recent weeks, however, he has softened his remarks, recently asserting that he will not support “anyone who has violated human rights”.

CRISIS IN THE RULING PARTY

For Sajuria, unlike other candidates, Kast has taken “the good” from the right, which is his most traditional constituency, and has been spared “the bad”: the burden of being associated with a government with low approval ratings and a president who is under political scrutiny and could have been impeached.

María Cristina Escudero, a political scientist at the University of Chile, believes that Kast’s rise is “clearly due to the decline of the pro-government candidate” Sebastián Sichel, a former minister who stumbled several times in the debates and represents a centrist position that “does not appeal to the most conservative voters.”

Disappointment with Sichel, who polls show would not make it to the second round, is felt even in the conservative ruling coalition itself, and some leaders have already announced that they will support Kast, who for years belonged to the ruling party’s most traditional party, the Independent Democratic Union (UDI), but is now going his own way.

“The political center has emptied out,” Escudero told Efe, “and the scenario of uncertainty facing the country has given preference to the most radical and decisive options.”